September 1, 2011 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Katia

Location: 15.5N 47.5W

Distance: 1,050 miles E of the Northern Leeward Islands

Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph

Movement: W at 18 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb

Hurricane Watch: None

Tropical Storm Warning: None

Tropical Storm Watch: None

Katia is still far out in the eastern Atlantic with no land in sight. Currently, shear and dry air are her main inhibitors towards strengthening, but that is expected to slowly diminish and allow Katia to strengthen steadily within 36 hours. The NHC forecasts Katia will be a major hurricane in 3 days.

Katia is expected to continue travelling west for another 12-24 hours and then turn towards the WNW as she approaches a weakness in the high. At this point, the models becomes more scattered on the possible future of Katia.

For the last 7-8 hours, Katia has been moving in a general west direction at 18-20 mph. The longer she continues to move west, the farther she will get before making her forecasted turn. The only concern I have is that the track keeps on bending to the left after each advisory. Time will tell………………………

This storm will be around for at least another 8-10 days.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

There are currently two invests – one in the Gulf of Mexico and the other in the vicinity of Bermuda. The latter invest should stay away from land while the invest in the GOM will become a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. If you live along the Gulf coast, please stay tuned to the blog for more information in the coming days. This one has the potential to be a major rain maker.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

TD #12 Forms

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Tropical Depression #12

Location: 9.8N 27.5W

Distance: 650 miles SSW of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands

Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph

Movement: W at 15 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb

Hurricane Warning: None

Hurricane Watch: None

Tropical Storm Warning: None

Tropical Storm Watch: None

We have our 12th tropical depression of the season very far away in the eastern Atlantic. If TD #12 (Katia) were to threaten the United States, it will occur in 12-14 days. Little has changed this morning regarding organization and structure. Currently, shear is inhibiting organization and it should subdue very soon allowing for a more favor environment for TD #12. The National Hurricane Center forecasts TD #12 to attain hurricane status in two days and a strong category 2 hurricane in 5 days.

Where is TD #12 going? It is way too early to know yet, but the models are in good agreement that in 5 days TD #12 will be a few hundred miles of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Currently, high pressure is steering TD #12, but a trough is expected to create a weakness along the western side of the high between 40W – 50W over the next couple of days. This should cause the depression to turn more towards the WNW within the next day or so. Further along in the forecast period, the models are showing the weakness in the ridge filling in (becoming stronger) westward. This is verbatim by the NHC:

This should prevent the cyclone from moving significantly pole ward during the forecast period.

It way too early, but if the above is true further down the road, this could mean trouble for the U.S. This means that the high would be strong enough to block any movement to the north for TD #12.

Time will tell………………………..another update tomorrow.

Stay tuned…………………………….

Today marks the 6 anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. There is no need to elaborate on her destruction as we all still vividly remember. Please send prayers to the 1,836 people that lost their lives and their families.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

August 26, 2011 Tropical Update

Summary of 2:00 PM EDT

Hurricane Irene

Location: 31.2N 77.5W

Distance: 300 SSW of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina

Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 mph

Movement: N at 14 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 951 mb

Hurricane Warning: Little river inlet North Carolina northward to Sandy Hook, New Jersey…including the Pamlico…Albemarle…and Currituck sounds…Delaware bay…and Chesapeake Bay south of Drum Point.

Hurricane Watch: North of Sandy Hook to the mouth of the Merrimack River in Massachusetts, including New York City, Long Island Sound, Block Island, Boston, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.

Tropical Storm Warning: North of Edisto Beach in South Carolina to the Little River Inlet; Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point northward and the tidal Potomac.

Tropical Storm Watch: None

Irene is a bit weaker than the 11 AM advisory and strengthening s not forecasted during the next 12 to 24 hours. After passing north of North Carolina, shear is expected to increase and sea surface temperatures will begin to get cooler. This should continue to gradually weaken Irene as she bears down on the Mid-Atlantic states.

With that said, Irene will continue to be a large and dangerous hurricane with the potential to produce strong winds, storm surge flooding, and extreme rain between North Carolina and New England. Irene will continue to move north for another 12 hours and then start a turn to the NNE as she affects every state along the east coast.

Please continue to pay very close attention to your local government and heed all of their warnings. Evacuate if you are asked to. Irene is poised to become a historic hurricane when it is all said and done. Stay safe !!

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Tropical Depression #10

Location: 14.9N 34.2W

Distance: 655 miles W of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands

Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph

Movement: NW at 8 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb

Hurricane Warning: None

Hurricane Watch: None

Tropical Storm Warning: None

Tropical Storm Watch: None

TD #10 is very far away from land mass. It is expected dissipate in 5 days.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

August 25, 2011 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Irene

Location: 25.9N 76.8W

Distance: 75 miles NNE of Nassau, Bahamas

Maximum Sustained Winds: 115 mph

Movement: NNW at 12 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 951 mb

Hurricane Warning: The Central and Northwestern Bahamas

Hurricane Watch: North of Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border including the Pamlico, Albemarle, and Currituck Islands

Tropical Storm Warning: North of Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina

Tropical Storm Watch: None

Irene is still not done tearing through the Bahamas. She is approaching Grand Abaco Island. A turn to the NNW has commenced according to the 11 AM advisory. Environmental conditions are very favorable or strengthening with low shear, excellent outflow, and very warm waters. I believe she will strengthen to a category 4 before she reaches North Carolina with a slow weakening occurring on her way to landfall. North Carolina should expect a storm category 3 hurricane bearing down on them on Saturday.

After North Carolina, Irene should track up the east coast and affect every state from North Carolina and Maine. Irene is a very large storm with tropical storm force winds expanding 290 miles from the center and hurricane force winds extend 70 miles. Do not focus on the track of Irene. She will affect everyone in some way.

Depending on how much land interaction Irene has, the possibility that Irene can affect Long Island, New York and southern New England as a category 2 hurricane is very possible. If you live in the path of Irene, please listen to your local government’s emergency messages. Evacuate is you are told to and stay safe.

Stay tuned…………………………….

Tropical Depression #10

Location: 13.3N 31.8W

Distance: 505 miles W of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands

Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph

Movement: WNW at 12 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

Hurricane Warning: None

Hurricane Watch: None

Tropical Storm Warning: None

Tropical Storm Watch: None

The track for TD #10 is a bit complicated. At first it will track NW and then turn to the west. We have to wait a few more days to see how the end of the track plays out. This cyclone is far away. There is plenty of time to watch it.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Hurricane Irene 11 AM Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Irene

Location: 22.4N 73.9W

Distance: 100 miles SE of Long Island Bahamas

Maximum Sustained Winds: 115 mph

Movement: NW at 12 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 956 mb

Hurricane Warning: The Southeastern, Central, and Northwestern Bahamas

Hurricane Watch: None

Tropical Storm Warning: The Turks and Caicos Islands

Tropical Storm Watch: None

The much anticipated turn has occurred according to the National Hurricane Center in this advisory. As 8:00 AM EDT, Irene was upgraded to category three status. She has continued to strengthen this morning with the eye becoming more distinct. There has been constant monitoring with Irene by not only NOAA, but the Air Force. Multiple planes are currently flying inside of her as we speak. Irene’s structure also has become well established.

Ahead of her are very warm waters which will help her reach category four status within the next 36 hours. After this, an eye wall replacement cycle might take during the next 48 hours. That means that her current eye wall will be replaced with a new one. This is a common occurrence with powerful hurricanes. The eye wall replacement, along with southwesterly shear and colder waters, will induce a slight weakening trend within the next 96 hours. Don’t let your guard down with that last statement. Hurricane Irene is still forecasted to be a large and powerful hurricane.

Where is she going? The answer is a bit clearer this morning then yesterday. The models are in good agreement within the first 2-3 days of the forecast. After day 3, they diverge a bit. Some models say that Irene will turn to the NNE after the initial northwest and then northerly turn; keeping the core of Irene off shore. Others say that she will turn to the north; affecting the mid-Atlantic states. The NHC says that both of these scenarios are viable at this moment.

What does all of this mean for the mid-Atlantic states? There are multiple scenarios if you follow the models. A consensus of all the models is the forecast the NHC has put together. If the NHC forecast holds up to be accurate, the outer banks of North Carolina will feel the full force of Irene by Saturday morning/early afternoon.

Any state north of North Carolina along the southeastern U.S. coast should pay very close attention to the path of Irene once she approaches North Carolina. Hurricane force conditions are expected in Cape Cod by Sunday evening and tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. cities of Philadelphia, New York City, Hartford, Providence, and Boston.

Any wobble to the west could easily put her eye through your state. If you live in the outer banks of North Carolina, please heed the warnings and evacuate. Anyone further north, pay close attention to the instructions your local government will give you.

Stay tuned for more information………………………..

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

The National Hurricane Center has tagged a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic as Invest 90L. This tropical wave has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. No need to worry about this at the moment. It is almost 2 weeks away.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

19th Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew

Today makes 19 years of the devastating direct hit South Florida took from Hurricane Andrew in 1992. It was the strongest hurricane to hit South Florida in almost 30 years (Hurricane Betsy in 1965). At landfall, Andrew had the 3rd lowest pressure (922 mb) in history (Labor Day 1935 and Camille). A total of 26 people lost their lives during the storm. Andrew was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history for 13 years until Katrina tore through Louisiana.

Ground zero was Homestead, Florida. Almost ALL of the mobile homes in the area were destroyed. Many of South Florida’s communication and transportation infrastructures were severely impaired along with 1.4 million customers were without power. Some residents were without power for up to six months after the storm.

Due to the poor building infrastructure and the 40 mile wide path of destruction, 150,000 – 200,000 people were left homeless and over 600,000 homeless and businesses were destroyed or severely impaired by winds, waves, and rain. Because of Andrew, building codes in Miami-Dade County were revamped. The unemployment rate in county rose to 14% in the aftermath.

The devastation was so severe, that 22,000 military troops were deployed. At the time, that was the largest military operation ever in the U.S. The military also supplied within a week of Andrew – 98 helicopters, 1,300 vehicles, 1,333 tents enough to house 27,000 people, 30 portable kitchens, 100,000 blankets, and 38,500 cots.

Andrew was my first hurricane experience that I can vividly remember. During that time, I lived in North Miami (35+ miles north of Homestead) and we were without power and water for over two weeks. During those times is when you appreciate electricity, water, T.V., A.C., etc. Going to bed with our windows open and falling asleep to the sound of generators was the norm for two weeks for us.

Unfortunately, we went through the same thing for a longer period of time with Hurricane Wilma, but that is another story for another day.

Andrew was a destructive hurricane that no one in South Florida ever wants to see again.

R.I.P. you bastard !!

Hurricane Irene 11:00 AM Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Irene

Location: 20.5N 71.0W
Distance: 70 miles S of Grand Turk Island
Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 mph
Movement: WNW at 12 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 mb

Hurricane Warning: Turks and Caicos Islands, Southeastern, Central, and Northwestern Bahamas

Hurricane Watch: North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicolas eastward to the Dominican Republic border

Tropical Storm Warning: North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Haiti border, North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicolas eastward to the Dominican Republic border

Tropical Storm Watch: None

Hurricane Irene has not strengthened since being classified a category 2 hurricane last night. In the last couple of satellite images, hint of an eye is visible, but recon says that Irene does not have a closed center of circulation.

Currently, 15-25- mph shear is affecting Irene and it will stick around for a couple of days; therefore, models don’t show much strengthening during this time. There are two models that aggressively show Irene as a borderline category 5 storm off the coast of the Carolinas. Most of the intensity models don’t show that and the NHC favors the less aggressive models for now.

Irene’s average motion during the last 6 hours has been WNW. A trough is expected to weaken the western portion of the High pressure currently steering Irene. Once the weakness is pronounced, it will provide an opening for Irene to pass through. If the trough is not a strong as the models are projecting, Irene heads west.

The Bahamas are in line to receive a major blow from Irene as the forecasted track calls for her to traverse through the heart of the Bahamas. Irene is expected to intensify as she approaches the Bahamas, but that won’t happen until she can escape the coast of Hispañola which is causing some disruption.

The models have been in good agreement since last night’s run due to the data collected using the NOAA G IV jet and the weather balloons that have been launched every six hours from the CONUS east coast to sample the atmosphere ahead of Irene. The NOAA jet was crucial for the models as the data collected really helped them come in agreement with a track off Florida, but approaching the Carolina Coast.
The billion dollar question is: At what point will Irene turn NW? The NHC believes it will commence tomorrow towards the NW and then gradually track in a northerly direction towards the outer banks of North Carolina by Saturday morning/afternoon as a major hurricane. Once landfall occurs, Irene is expected to continue to track over land as a minimal hurricane and affect Virginia by early morning Sunday. This is the current track and it can change.

Anyone along the track of Irene, please heed all warnings. Irene is forecasted to be a strong category 3 hurricane with the possibility of reaching category 4 status.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

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