Monthly Archives: September 2008

TS KYLE 5:00 pm Update

Good Afternoon !! The tropical wave that battered Puerto Rico and HispaƱiola for days has finally developed into Tropical Storm Kyle according to the Hurricane Hunters. TS Kyle is located 645 miles south south-west of Bermuda moving at 8 mph towards the north. Winds within TS Kyle are 45 mph and extend from the center 105 miles.

TS Kyle is expected to become a hurricane in the next couple of days with possible landfall in Nova Scotia. Hopefully, the storm stays away from the East Coast because a CAT 1 hurricane in New York City would be catastrophic for the city and the U.S.

Tomorrow, I will post the possible affects of a hurricane in New York City as mentioned by scientists in the last few years. The consequences of a CAT 1 hurricane will amaze you.

Stay tuned to Enrique6 News for more updates from our Hurricane Center on TS Kyle.

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Special Tropical Disturbance Statement 3

Nothing new in regards to the tropical wave located between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The wave has dumped tremendous amounts of rain over Puerto Rico causing rivers to rise and bridges to collapse. Luckily, the tropical wave should not affect Haiti because they really can not take anymore rain. Below is an excerpt of the Special Tropical Disturbance Statement issued by the NHC:   

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FLOWN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HISPANIOLA INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED…AND STILL LACKS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT…THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO…THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…AND HAITI THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES

There is a low pressure system near North Carolina that is attempting to form into a tropical or subtropical cyclone. A subtropical cyclone is a system that has no tropical characteristics associated with it, but has everything else a tropical cyclone would have. This system should affect the middle half of the east coast as stated below. Read the official statement below:
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES…400 KM…SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA IS ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS OF UP TO 65 MPH…100 KM/HR…TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS…COASTAL FLOODING…HIGH SURF…AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
A lot of talk has been generated from these two systems because there is a good possibility that they will be close enough to each other to create the Fujiwhara Effect. That occurs when two systems, tropical storm or stronger, approach within 900 miles of each other. At that point, their centers will begin to orbit at a point between the two centers. Although rare, eventually these systems will spiral into the center point and merge. The stronger storm absorbs the weaker one. To understand better how the Fujiwhara Effect works, imagine two skaters that are spinning and they join hands.
 
Everything else in the tropics is quiet. Stay tuned to Enrique6 News for another update from our Hurricane Center.

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Special Tropical Disturbance Statement 2

The National Hurricane Center has issued another statement regarding the tropical wave affecting Puerto Rico.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA…CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER…THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT… AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THEREFORE…THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO…THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

Basically, the above is an extension from the one issued last night. The only difference is that the tropical wave is getting better organized.

Stay tuned to Enrique6 News for more updates from our Hurricane Center as they become avaliable.

Special Tropical Disturbance Statement

Below is a statement issued by the National Hurricane Center:

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL- DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER…UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT…AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY. REPORTS FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATE OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ON SOME PARTS OF THE ISLAND. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO…THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…HAITI…THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS…AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

What it means is that a tropical wave is currently over Puerto Rico causing torrential rain. This system has been monitored for the last 3 days and has become better organized. A tropical depression might form soon out of this tropical wave, but not until there is circulation at the surface of the storm. Models indicate that this storm does not pose a threat to Florida, but still remain vigilant. If the tropical wave forms into a tropical depression, I will inform all of you.

I read that there is a tropical wave that has moved out of Africa that bears to be watched. Some of the models want to develop this week during the week, but no signs of development yet. The good thing about the African waves the later it gets in the system is that the chances of them reaching the U.S. are a bit less than before because more troughs will dig deeper (south) and pick up the storms. For example: Hurricane Wilma was born in the Caribbean and hit Cozumel, Mexico. From there it went into Cancun, Mexico and then made a big turn towards Florida. That turn was caused by a trough that came and pushed it in our general direction. That is why storms in the Caribbean are dangerous and need to be watched because the possibility that a trough will pull a storms towards us in high.

Stay tuned to Enrique6 News Blog for the latest information.

Hurricane IKE Lone Survivor

How do you know that your house was built to withstand a hurricane ?? I could not believe it when I saw the picture, but understood when I read the caption. The home was built to go through a category 5 hurricane !! There is no other house standing and the house looks fairly intact. WOW !!

Image Courtesy of: AOL News

African Wave

There are some models that develop a strong tropical wave exiting off the coast of Africa. The wave is a long long way from us and there is no need for concern. This is only an informative piece of information. I will stay alert and inform you all of anything that transpires.

Atlantic and Carribean Update

Currently, there are no areas of concern in the tropics.