Monthly Archives: August 2009

Afternoon Update

Nothing new on Invest 94L. Currently, it is surviving considering it has shear around that is trying to disrupt it. It is lacking a COC (Center Of Circulation). Without that, this system won’t develop. Once it does acquire a COC, it could possibly strengthen rapidly because 94L currently is in hot waters. I believe that by tomorrow morning we will have Tropical Depression #6. In the short term, the Antilles and Puerto Rico should monitor any developments occurring with 94L/TD #6 as it will be in close proximity in the coming days. In the long run, 94L/TD #6 might pose a threat to the Bahamas and the CONUS (COntinental United States). There are some ideas as to the future track of 94L/TD #6, but I would like to see how things “pan out” in the 12-18 hours. I don’t like to speculate and would prefer to wait until more data is analyzed.

Also, the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 94L tomorrow. This would be great because we need all the info we can get considering 94L looks like more than an invest. I will be back tomorrow, if nothing changes tonight, with a full update and more information about the future track of 94L/TD #6.

Morning/Afternoon Tropical Update

Image Credit: National Hurricane Center

11 AM EST NHC Update:
Location: 27.5 North Latitude, 73.1 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 mph.
Movement: Northwest 13 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

Tropical Storm Danny continues to look disorganized this morning. The center continues to be exposed with the heaviest thunderstorms being several hundred miles east of the center. Despite its disorganization, Danny continues to generate strong winds, with the Hurricane Hunters reporting winds in the 55 – 60 mph range early this morning. Conditions around Danny should get a bit better between today and Friday for Danny to gain Cat.1 strength. A landfall in Cape Cod, eastern Maine, or Nova Scotia with 55 – 75 mph winds is a good bet. Currently, Cape Hatteras and Morehead City are out of the cone, but close enough offshore to keep monitoring Danny very closely. Farther north, Cape Cod and surrounding areas should also monitor Danny closely as he will be passing by on Saturday afternoon and a direct hit cannot be ruled out. On the current track, a direct hit is expected in Nova Scotia later in the forecast.

Please stay tuned to the blog for further details, but most importantly, follow the advice of your local meteorologists.

Invest 92L was born yesterday out of the blob in the picture I sent yesterday morning. Currently, the NHC gives the tropical wave a less than 30% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours. At this moment nothing else can be said about the strong tropical wave because it is far out in the Atlantic Ocean.

My next update will be tomorrow morning.

Have a great day !!

Next headache ??

The models are not saying much about the wave below yet, but the NHC says there is a less than 30% chance of it becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. It does look pretty impressive and conditions around it are favorable for development. I will keep an eye on the
models in the coming days to see if they start to pick up this wave and where should we expect it to go.

Morning/Afternoon Tropical Update

Here is the 11 am est Information on Tropical Storm Danny:
Location: 24.9 North Latitude, 70.3 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 mph.
Movement: West Northwest 18 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Danny is located 445 miles east of Nassau, Bahamas and 775 miles from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Danny is expected to commence a general NW motion beginning today and continuing Thursday with a turn towards the NNW on Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center. On its current track, Danny’s closest approach to Florida ranges between 400-450 miles off the coast anywhere between 8/27/2009 at 8:00 pm and 8/28/2009 at 8:00 am.

Danny is not expected to be a threat for Florida, but interests in the Carolinas and points northward along the eastern seaboard including Nova Scotia, again. By the time it reaches Nova Scotia, it is projected to be a Cat.1 hurricane, possibly a minimal Cat.2. Considering the current information, watches and warnings may be needed for the area of Morehead City and Cape Hatteras in North Carolina beginning today at the earliest 5 pm or the ultimate latest 5 am tomorrow morning. Things might change between now and tomorrow, but Danny will pass about 120 miles off the coast of Cape Hatteras on Saturday morning. As mentioned above, tropical storm force winds extend 140 miles so these winds will be felt in Cape Hatteras. More info to follow. Below is the forecast track for tropical storm Danny.

Morning Tropical Update

R.I.P Hurricane Bill !!

Happy 17th Anniversary Hurricane Andrew !!

Welcome to the World Invest 92L !!

We have a new area of disturbed weather to keep an eye one this week. It has been labeled Invest 92 L for investigational purposes. Currently, the tropical wave is located east of the Leeward Islands moving WNW. Models have shown that a storm will develop just before the Bahamas early this week and track away from Florida and up the east coast late in the week. The entire eastern seaboard should monitor this wave until it becomes clearer the path of Invest 92L. The National Hurricane Center has also designated this area “code yellow” which means it has a less than 30% chance of developing at this moment. I will keep everyone updated as the news changes.

Below is a picture taken by the Hurricane Hunters during one of their missions into Hurricane Bill. This picture was taken while in the eye.

Image Credit: Weather Underground – Dr. Jeff Masters Blog

Morning/Afternoon Tropical Update

11:00 AM EST Hurricane Bill Update:

Location: 22.6 North Latitude, 61.7 West Longitude

Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 mph

Movement: Northwest at 18 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 951 MB

A hurricane watch has been issued for the island of Bermuda. Bill is located 695 miles south southeast of Bermuda and hurricane conditions are expected in 36 hours. Bill has weakened a bit due to the eyewall becoming exposed on the southwest side, but he is expected to re-gain Cat. 4 strength by Friday considering he will be traversing the warmest waters yet . Bill has grown in size since yesterday’s advisory. Currently, tropical storm force winds (34-73 mph) extend 260 miles from the center and hurricane force winds (74+ mph) extend 105 miles.

The current thinking from NHC has not changed. Hurricane Bill will come within 100-150 miles from the coast of New England. Residents and vacationers in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island should start preparing today for a hurricane strike on Sunday/Sunday night. Bill is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia as a strong Cat.2/ weak Cat.3 (100-115 mph). There is the possibility that Bill’s eye could pass offshore of the mentioned areas. Landfall or close call, very strong winds and rain will be felt in the areas mentioned above and preparation should commence for the worse.

I will have another update tomorrow morning. Have a great day !!

Morning Tropical Update

Here is the 11 AM EST On Hurricane Bill:

Location: 18.7 North Latitude, 56.3 West Longitude
Maximum Sustained Winds: 135 mph
Movement: West-Northwest at 18 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 950 millibars

This morning’s satellite shows Bill continues to have impressive symmetry and his eye is about 25-30 miles wide. Hurricane Hunters are inside Bill investigating him and the atmosphere surrounding him. An upper level low (ULL) and a trough of low pressure are the weather features that will create the weakness on the western side of the high pressure ridge. Models are forecasting that Bill will commence to turn northwest in about 2-3 days. The question is when will the turn occur. European models suggest that the turn will happen near 67 west longitude and two other models suggest that Bill will turn between 70-71 west longitude. The farther out in the forecast the wider the models get from each other. People in New England and points north show watch the track of Bill closely because the models continue to shift west (slightly) and every shift keeps bringing Bill closer and closer to brushing the coast. The NHC is NOT forecasting landfall in New England, but a small part is in the cone. On the other hand, Nova Scotia and Newfound Land need to watch the track of Bill much closely as it approaches because they are currently in the path of probably a weaker Bill at the end of the forecast track. Most likely by that time, Bill would be downgraded to a strong Cat.1 to a medium Cat.2 because the waters would be cooler farther north and he would be moving pretty fast.

There are still some minimal concerns regarding Bill’s much anticipated turn. Atmospheric changes can occur at any time and IF the high pressure currently steering Bill get stronger and force Bill on a more westerly track and curve Bill out to sea later than anticipated. The NHC seems very confident on the scenario they have had for days now and I trust their thinking. Me personally, do not feel safe until Bill passes my latitude 25 north (Miami). Everything seems to point to Bill passing about 1,000 miles off the coast of Florida. Bill currently has a hurricane force (74+ mph) wind field that extends out 80 miles and tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) extend 180 miles from the center. Also, swells as high as 12 feet should affect the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and part of the eastern seaboard.

There are a few waves out there that need to be watched, but nothing imminent. I will keep my eye on them and let you guys know as soon as anything changes.

Have a great day !!