Monthly Archives: September 2009

Ex-Fred

What's left of Fred is still alive and need to be watched carefully.
Ex-Fred was located about 820 miles east of Florida moving WNW at around
14 mph. Currently, there is about 20 knots (23 mph) of shear around
ex-Fred and satellite is showing thunderstorms firing back-up south of
the center. It is predicted that ex-Fred will be in the Bahamas by
Sunday and close or onshore of east Florida (Vero Beach to Miami-Dade).
Ex-Fred will be moving into an area of favorable conditions as early as
tomorrow continuing into Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Bahamas
and Florida.

Even if ex-Fred does not regenerate into a tropical depression or storm,
heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be felt by Monday and continuing
into Tuesday. Some of the models think that ex-Fred might be delayed and
arrive Tuesday or Wednesday. Either way expect rain and wind around
Monday/Tuesday. Intensity models say that ex-Fred will regenerate into a
tropical storm again within the next 24 hours and forecast it to be a
50-55 mph tropical storm by Sunday/Monday and make landfall by late
Tuesday as a 60-65 mph tropical storm in eastern Florida.

It is going to be very tough to know for sure if will eventually
regenerate. I will not be surprised if ex-Fred does regenerate this
weekend. I say it is 50/50. Models are currently not in agreement on
where landfall will occur. Anyone living between Vero Beach and
Miami-Dade should watch carefully what happens with ex-Fred. Hurricane
Hunters are expected to fly into ex-Fred tomorrow afternoon to offer
more information for a better outlook.

I will watch this closely and advise over the weekend.

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Fred – Teaching Moment

Good Afternoon !!!!!!!!!! I have decided that what is going on with Hurricane Fred far far away from land should be a great teaching moment for everyone.

 

On Monday, September 7 at 5:00 PM, the track of Fred looked like this after the 1st advisory:
 
Loading Storm Graphics Loops
 

Why was Fred supposed to take that track? Well the simple answer is because the high pressure above Fred was going to be weakened by a trough of low pressure making its way across the Atlantic. The breakdown of the high pressure ridge (wall) and the influence of the trough (pull), Fred is allowed to take a more NW then north track because his “wall” will be weak and it will be “pulled”.

 

 

On Tuesday, September 8 at 5:00 PM, Fred’s track looked like this on after the 5th advisory:
 
Loading Storm Graphics Loops

 

If you notice, the track illustrates a harder “pull” to the north. Two reasons why: (1) the trough of low pressure is stronger than they thought. (2) Fred was almost a hurricane at that point. When a storm is stronger is feels the effect of a trough a lot more that a weaker one. On the previous track, Fred’s path showed a slower turn to the NW and north AND it is hinting of a possible turn to the WNW.

 

 

On Wednesday, September 9 at 5:00 PM, Fred’s track looked like this on after the 9th advisory:
 
Loading Storm Graphics Loops

 

There is the westward motion I mentioned before. Why the change? Well, for starters, the trough is still there for the first part of the advisory, but towards the end of it the high pressure builds back in and is steers Fred more west. In the middle of the track, you would see that there are three dots  that loo like they are on top of each other. That is an indication that the steering currents (what move the storms) will break down and Fred will meander out there.

 

On Thursday, September 10 at 5:00 PM, Fred’s track looked like this on after the 13th advisory:
 
Loading Storm Graphics Loops

 

Look at the track. You can’t even see the first few dots because Fred is not even moving. Why? The steering currents broke down completely and there is nothing to “driving” the storm a certain direction. Towards the end of the track the westward movement is more distinguished. At this point, the track shows that the high pressure system above Fred will build back in in a few days and steer Fred towards the west.

 

Today’s track looks like this:
 
Loading Storm Graphics Loops

 

Still meandering (as 11:00 AM Fred’s movement was 1 MPH) and then turning towards the west in a few days.

 

I just want to show you guys that anything can change/happen with a tropical system. Just because the NHC says it is going to turn left in 5 days doesn’t really mean that. Not because they don’t know what they are saying, but because the atmosphere changes by the minute. When you are dealing with troughs and high pressures, there is always the possibility of the trough and/or the high pressure being weaker/stronger than expected in the days to come.

 

Fred is scheduled to weaken and become a remnant low in a few days, non tropical. Some models are hinting that the remnants of Fred will make it into the Bahamas in 10-12 days. Will Fred become as weak as the NHC currently says? Will he weaken only to a tropical depression? Shear is really taking its toll on Fred and that, along with cooler waters, will weaken Fred. Depending on Fred’s structure in the coming days, those questions can possibly be answered. Until then, it is all speculation. I will keep an eye on this and inform all of you of any developments.

Morning Tropical Update

As of last night 11 PM, the National Hurricane Center will no longer issue advisories on the tropical depression formerly known as Erika. It has been ripped apart by shear before even getting to Hispañola. If Erika decides to regenerate, which the NHC currently gives a less than 30% chance of developing, the NHC will resume with the advisories. For now, R.I.P. Erika.

 

NEXT !!

 

Well since we are reaching the peak of hurricane season, September 12, we have another wave to track across the Atlantic for the next two weeks. A strong and huge wave near the Cape Verde islands has the potential to develop in the coming days. The NHC gives this wave a less than 30% chance of developing. The percentage is low because it emerged of the African coast early yesterday. Maybe by next week we could have a TD in the Atlantic. Time will tell. Have a great long weekend !!

 

Tropical Storm Erika Update

There is not much that can be said about Erika at this moment. She is on life-support and the thinking is that she may not recover, but she has shown us that she is a fighter. We have seen everything occur with this storm, so nothing would surprise me anymore. The Hurricane Hunters have been flying around her for a few hours now and they have not found winds within Erika to support her tropical storm status. She most likely will be downgraded to a tropical depression at 5 pm. Could things change in the future for Erika regarding her structure, intensity, and atmosphere surrounding her? Yes, but that is not the thinking. It will be interesting to see what Erika does when she leaves Puerto Rico and Hispañola behind and approach the Bahamas. For now, expect to get rain and gusty winds around Tuesday in South Florida due to the remnants of Erika. I won't let my guard down until two things happen: (1) she dies (2) she passes my latitude/longitude. Since neither of those two things have occurred, I'll keep my eye on her. Another update tomorrow afternoon. Have a great night.

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Tropical Strom Erika Update

I really don't have much of a real update. At this point, it is wait and
see what happens with Erika. Some models say Erika will be a Cat. 3
hurricane while others have it as a weak tropical storm. Others want to
take her through Puerto Rico and back out to the ocean. Which one is
correct? The NHC track of Erika has been shifting to the left since
yesterday's 5 pm advisory. The Hurricane Hunters are currently flying
through Erika and have found winds up to 50 mph. I believe that the NHC
will upgrade Erika to 45-50 mph based on that data. She is struggling to
survive and putting up a good fight. Shear is trying to kill her, but
not yet. In the last few hours it seems that thunderstorms are trying
again to get organized around the center. I have read that made the
center will be moved down and to the right of where it is now. That is
one of the reasons why Erika has weakened – she has multiple centers. It
seems that maybe the one SE is the more dominant one. Time will tell. I
will send out another update later tonight if needed. If not, expect one
at about the same time as today.

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Update at 4:00 pm

I will send out an update at 4:00 pm regarding tropical storm Erika.
Thank you for your patience.

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Tropical Storm Erika Is Born

As of 5:00 pm, invest 94L became tropical storm Erika. Erika is located at 17.2N 57.3W and she is traveling WNW at 9 mph with winds at 50 mph. Erika is expected to be by Friday afternoon north of Puerto Rico and a few hundred miles north of Haiti by Sunday afternoon. There are a lot of uncertainties with the track of Erika due to the same scenario of every year – high pressure and a trough. Currently, models are saying that a trough (takes storms out to sea) will create a weakness against the high (blocks storm from curving out to sea) over the storm. Once that occurs, the thinking is that Erika will curve out to sea. There are also those who say that the trough will not be strong enough and it will leave causing the high to build further west. Not good, but luckily that is not the current thinking. I wouldn't pay too much attention to where the models are saying Erika will travel through. They do not have any of the new information collected today by the Hurricane Hunters. That information will most likely make into the models 6-12 hours from now. Let's give the models some time to digest the info then see what they say. So for now, sit tight and listen to your local meterologists. I will have another update later tonight IF something changes. If not, expect an update after the 11 am update by the NHC.


Graphics below:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
Image Credit: National Hurricane Center

Image Credit: NOAA Satellite and Information Services

Image Credit: South Florida Water Management Division

Image Credit: