10:00 AM Update
Longitude: 15.0N Latitude: 84.0W
Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph
Movement: North at 7 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 MB
Ida is now a tropical depression. She is currently over eastern Honduras and should emerge back into the Atlantic by tonight. If she holds together and her core structure is not heavily damaged, Ida will restrengthen into a tropical storm fairly quickly and possibly reach hurricane status with time. Presently, there is moderate shear in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and that might inhibit any rapid strengthening from occurring, but the possibility still exists.
Currently, the models are in a good agreement for the next 24-48 hours. After that time frame, they begin to disagree. Some models want to take Ida into the central GOM by Tuesday while others want to take Ida towards the NE and bring her close to Florida. The latter is what the NHC is thinking are the more reliable solutions to follow at this point due to the historical climatology of the month of November. The reason for the possible bend towards Florida is due to a cold front that will be arriving by early next week. It is expected that Ida will get picked up by that front and brought into Florida. It is not known how strong will Ida be at that point, but everything points to a stronger storm in a few days. In fact, Ida could line-up with shear later in the forecast. What does that mean? It means that at some point in the forecast track, Ida could be moving in the same direction as the shear is blowing. Experts say this could actually help Ida strengthen further. Let’s see what actually occurs. As you will see in the link below, the 5 day cone does show more of a bend towards Florida than it did yesterday.
At this point, we have to wait and see for three things: (1) in what shape will Ida emerge off the coast of Honduras. (2) how will the shear affect Ida once it reaches the GOM. (3) when will the front pick up Ida and where will Ida be at that point. All of the points listed above are to occur in that order. Over the weekend, we should keep a very close eye on Ida and see what transpires. I will try to send an update at some point Saturday. Have a great weekend !!
TD Ida – 5 Day Cone
Latitude: 12.8N Longitude: 83.4W
Maximum sustained winds: 75 mph
Present movement: NW at 7 mph
Minimum central pressure: 987 mb
TS Ida became a Hurricane Ida this morning and she is very close to the coast of Nicaragua. Although she is a minimal hurricane, winds gusting as high as 85 mph along with life threatening flooding in the region. The current thinking is that Ida will traverse Nicaragua and exit through Honduras by 1 am Saturday. That is a lot of time to be inland and it can seriously affect the structure of Ida. She is expected to emerge as a tropical depression by that time and make it back to tropical storm status by 1 am Sunday. In between 1 am Monday and 1 am Tuesday, Ida might clip the eastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Multiple models bring Ida into the Gulf of Mexico in a week. It is still early to say where and what Ida will do, but she does need to be watched in the coming days. An expert I read, thinks that Ida might not enter Nicaragua right away, slow down a bit, hug the coast, and then enter, but not spend too much time inland. If that occurs, Ida will not lose much of her punch. The atmosphere and time will tell. Stay tuned.
5:00 AM 5-Day Cone
An area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean has become better organized this morning. As of 11:00 AM, the National Hurricane Center has declared this system as Tropical Depression #11. Bursts of thunderstorms are occurring near the center with pronounced banding features developing also. The NHC has said that they will not be surprised if this system is already a Tropical Storm, but will hold off on taking that step until the Hurricane Hunters investigate TD #11 later this afternoon to give a better estimate of the actual winds.
The current thinking on the future track of TD #11 is that steering currents will remain weak during the next 5 days. Models do not have a good handle of TD #11, but some are saying that the depression will drift into Nicaragua and then re-emerge out the coast of Honduras. At that point, the system seems to curve. Considering the high uncertainty regarding the 5 day cone, don’t put too much into the first few 5 day cones. They never stay the same. Once the depression has developed into a tropical storm, give it a couple of days so the models can get a good handle of the system.
I will post again later today with important information on the Hurricane Hunter mission and if TD #11 is updated to Tropical Storm Ida.