Good Morning !!
Location: 21.2N 67.9W
Distance: 205 miles E of Grand Turk Islands
1,070 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
Maximum Sustained Winds: 135 mph
Movement: WNW at 14 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 939 mb
Tropical Storm Warning: Turks and Caicos Islands
Tropical Storm Watch: Southeastern Bahamas
Earl’s eye has become obscured on satellite leading to a higher pressure. It is likely Earl is going through an eye wall replacement cycle in which he loses the current eye wall and a new one appears. Typically, when this occurs a hurricane will weaken a bit. Earl is expected to retain category 4 strength for another 48 hours and commence a weakening phase at that point as shear will increase.
Earl has been wobbling for the last few hours, but his average 6 hour motion has been WNW. He should continue in this direction for another 24-48 hours The high pressure currently steering him, will be moving to the east and that is when Earl will make his move to the north and northeast.
Everyone in the Bahamas and along the east coast History tells shows that tropical cyclone where Earl is located has a 30-40% chance of making U.S. landfall. Earl is going to be passing by very close to North Carolina, Virginia, etc. and all the way to Maine. Everyone living in between North Carolina and Maine, needs to pay attention to Earl he will pass by very close. Hurricane force winds extend outward 70 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend 200 miles. Watches and warnings will be necessary for the coastal states shortly.
North Carolina should begin to feel the effects of Earl by Thursday.
Remember that a tropical cyclone does not travel in a straight line. They can make landfall anywhere within the cone of “uncertainty” and sometimes even outside of it. Don’t think you are safe because your state is not into the cone.
Tropical Storm Fiona
Location: 15.9N 55.3W
Distance: 440 miles E of the Leeward Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph
Movement: WNW at 24 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Tropical Storm Warning: St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
Tropical Storm Watch: Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Marteen, and St. Eustatius
Fiona is trying to develop while travelling behind Earl. Deep thunderstorms were forming near the center this morning, but have since died down a bit. The Hurricane Hunters have a mission planned to fly into Fiona this afternoon which will provide valuable data.
Fiona is travelling WNW at a very fast pace following in the “footsteps” of Earl. The weakness that Earl will “hopefully” create will also help Fiona turn NNW and then northward further into the forecast. Models are coming more in agreement with a scenario that will make Fiona a “fish”.
There might be a small window of opportunity for Fiona to strengthen in the next 12-24 hours before shear affects her. There are two scenarios with Fiona: (1) Shear from Earl from will inhibit any strengthening as it is to remain strong throughout the forecast period. (2) Fiona could weaken and dissipate of a few days due to the shear mentioned above.
Fiona has a 30-40% chance of making landfall in the U.S. according to history.
I will keep my eye on Fiona.
Elsewhere In The Tropics:
Invest 98L is behind Fiona. Models are forecasting 98L to be a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands in a few days. More to follow.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.