Monthly Archives: August 2010

August 31, 2010 Tropical Update

Good Morning !!

Hurricane Earl

Location: 21.2N 67.9W
Distance: 205 miles E of Grand Turk Islands

1,070 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
Maximum Sustained Winds: 135 mph
Movement: WNW at 14 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 939 mb

Tropical Storm Warning: Turks and Caicos Islands

Tropical Storm Watch: Southeastern Bahamas

Earl’s eye has become obscured on satellite leading to a higher pressure. It is likely Earl is going through an eye wall replacement cycle in which he loses the current eye wall and a new one appears. Typically, when this occurs a hurricane will weaken a bit. Earl is expected to retain category 4 strength for another 48 hours and commence a weakening phase at that point as shear will increase.

Earl has been wobbling for the last few hours, but his average 6 hour motion has been WNW. He should continue in this direction for another 24-48 hours The high pressure currently steering him, will be moving to the east and that is when Earl will make his move to the north and northeast.

Everyone in the Bahamas and along the east coast History tells shows that tropical cyclone where Earl is located has a 30-40% chance of making U.S. landfall. Earl is going to be passing by very close to North Carolina, Virginia, etc. and all the way to Maine. Everyone living in between North Carolina and Maine, needs to pay attention to Earl he will pass by very close. Hurricane force winds extend outward 70 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend 200 miles. Watches and warnings will be necessary for the coastal states shortly.

North Carolina should begin to feel the effects of Earl by Thursday.

Remember that a tropical cyclone does not travel in a straight line. They can make landfall anywhere within the cone of “uncertainty” and sometimes even outside of it. Don’t think you are safe because your state is not into the cone.

Tropical Storm Fiona

Location: 15.9N 55.3W
Distance: 440 miles E of the Leeward Islands

Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph
Movement: WNW at 24 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

Tropical Storm Warning: St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

Tropical Storm Watch: Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Marteen, and St. Eustatius

Fiona is trying to develop while travelling behind Earl. Deep thunderstorms were forming near the center this morning, but have since died down a bit. The Hurricane Hunters have a mission planned to fly into Fiona this afternoon which will provide valuable data.

Fiona is travelling WNW at a very fast pace following in the “footsteps” of Earl. The weakness that Earl will “hopefully” create will also help Fiona turn NNW and then northward further into the forecast. Models are coming more in agreement with a scenario that will make Fiona a “fish”.

There might be a small window of opportunity for Fiona to strengthen in the next 12-24 hours before shear affects her. There are two scenarios with Fiona: (1) Shear from Earl from will inhibit any strengthening as it is to remain strong throughout the forecast period. (2) Fiona could weaken and dissipate of a few days due to the shear mentioned above.

Fiona has a 30-40% chance of making landfall in the U.S. according to history.

I will keep my eye on Fiona.

Elsewhere In The Tropics:

Invest 98L is behind Fiona. Models are forecasting 98L to be a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands in a few days. More to follow.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Fiona Is Born; Earl Becomes Category 4

Let me break the ice and get the first joke out of the way – Fiona has arrived, but she didn’t bring Shrek nor the donkey.

The tropics are heating up. Below is Fiona’s future track. More information tomorrow morning !!

August 30, 2010 Tropical Update

Good Morning !!

Hurricane Danielle

Location: 40.9N 50.7W
Distance: 420 miles SSE of Cape Race, Newfoundland
Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph
Movement: NE at 16 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 mb

Danielle is sleeping with the fishes !! She will be a wind and rain event for Newfoundland.

This is my last report on Danielle.

Hurricane Earl

Location: 18.8N 63.7W (12:00 PM NHC Update)
Distance: 95 miles ENE of St. Thomas

165 miles E of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 mph
Movement: WNW at 15 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 960 mb

Hurricane Warnings: Anguilla, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, St. Marteen and St. Eustatius, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Ricans Islands of Culebra and Vieques

Hurricane Watch: Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Warning: Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

Tropical Storm Watch: Turks and Caicos Islands

Earl is a this season’s Since we last spoke, Earl has become a category 3 hurricane with a clear eye. Beginning Saturday, Earl started to become better organized with the help of warm waters and nice surrounding atmosphere. The turn has been a work in process as Earl moves a bit WNW and then wobbles westward. Tropical cyclones never travel in a straight line.

Currently, Earl is clipping the Northern Leeward Islands with strong winds and a lot of rain. On the Puerto Rico radar, Earls eye is visible as it tracks WNW and dumps a lot of rain on Puerto Rico in the process. As Earl continues to move WNW around the high, he is forecasted to turn to the NW in a day or so, then north in a few days, and then to the NE away from the U.S. The models have shifted a little to the west and are tightly clustered on the middle of the cone.

Don’t forget that the average forecast error at days 4 and 5 are 200-300 miles. That is the reason why the cone is so wide towards the end of the forecast track.

At this moment, I cannot say that anyone is safe from Earl because these storms have a mind of their own. It does not look like Earl will affect the U.S., but that is not set in stone. If nothing changes with the current forecasted track by the NHC, Earl will be passing within 197 nautical miles of Norfolk, Virginia. There is a possibility that some states along the east coast will experience rain and windy weather beginning Thursday afternoon/evening

Elsewhere In The Tropics:

Invest 97L continues to move westward and the NHC gives it a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. I will continue to keep a close eye on 97L since each passing storm is expected to get closer and closer to the U.S. High pressure will be a big factor down the road.

Have a great day !!

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

August 29, 2010 Tropical Update

Summary of 8:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Danielle

Location: 33.2N 57.3W
Distance: 440 miles E of Bermuda
Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 mph
Movement: NE at 21 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 972 mb

Danielle is slowly fading into distant memory. In 2-3 days, she will be between Canada and Europe in the middle of nowhere. No threat to anyone.

Hurricane Earl

Location: 17.1N 57.7W
Distance: 365 miles E of the Northern Leeward Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph
Movement: W at 18 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb

Earl was just upgraded to a hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters are surrently in Earl and has found winds to support this upgrade.

At this moment, Earl is becoming better organized. Shear is expected to relax for the next 4-5 days allowing for steady strengthening throughout the forecast period. He is expected to reach category3 status in 72-96, but I believe that will occur sooner.

Earl continues to travel west and this is forecasted to change 24-36 hours as he approaches a weakness in the high; therefore commencing on  a more WNW direction of travel.  After that, Earl should get picked up by a trough and pulled northward. The great majority of the models are in agreement with this track.If Earl stays on the forecasted track below, the U.S. will not receive a direct hit.

Do not let your guard down if you live between Florida and North Carolina. Things change very quickly.

I will continue to keep a very close on Earl as he is the closest threat to land at the moment.

Elsewhere In The Tropics:

Invest 97L has not become a tropical depression yet even though it looks like she might be. 97L is expected to travel a similar route as Earl with a higher chance of reaching the U.S.

I will have more information tomorrow.

Side Note:

Today marks the 5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s Landfall in New Orleans. Please say a prayer today for those that were affected and those that passed away during one of the worst natural disasters in U.S. history.

Have a great weekend !!

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

August 27, 2010 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Danielle

Location: 26.9N 59.8W
Distance: 480 miles SE of Bermuda
Maximum Sustained Winds: 135 mph
Movement: NW at 12 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 946 mb

What can I say? Danielle has exploded since yesterday’s 5 PM advisory. Currently, she is a category 4 hurricane and is not expected to go higher as she will enter a hostile environment in 36-48 hours. High shear and cooler water temperatures will be the inhibiting factors.

Danielle began yesterday to turn to the NW and is expected to recurve to the NE in about 24-36 hours as she turns around the high. The NHC mentioned that it is possible Danielle could enhance the high a bit towards the west allowing for more of a westward motion during the next 24 hours, a possibility mentioned on this blog a few days ago. After recurvature occurs, Danielle will race towards the NE and become extratropical.

At that point it will be THE END of Danielle.

The only landmass with the possibility of being affected by Danielle is Bermuda. Below is a the forecasted track for Danielle.

Tropical Storm Earl

Location: 15.7N 43.6W
Distance: 1,300 E of the northern Leeward Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 mph
Movement: W at 17 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb

Earl’s overall appearance and structure has not changed much since yesterday. The atmosphere around Earl is very conducive for development, so the NHC expects him to intensify to a category 3 hurricane in 5 days. Shear will be minimal and what is steering Earl is the high over him and that is not expected to change until he reaches 60W.

Earl continues to travel westward at a good clip and will do so for another day or two. After day two, Earl is forecasted to begin to feel the weakness left by Danielle in the high pressure and turn more to the WNW and NW while decreasing in forward speed. Once Earl approaches 60W, the models are not as sure of the track as they were with the first 48 hours. The track below is in the middle of two reliable models and a bit south of the last one. Earl will be watched carefully.

Any deviation to the south could put the residents of the northern Leeward Islands at risk.

A study conducted by Robert Hart of Florida State University Meteorology states that a storm, no matter the status, located in the position Earl is has a 15-20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. The given data is a result of studying tropical cyclone tracks between 1886-2008.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Yesterday, the NHC designated an invest title (97L) to a very strong tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic. Preliminary models are expecting 97L to follow Earl or get absorbed by Earl.

I believe that 97L will become Fiona in the next few days and turn into a hurricane down the road. 97L will need to be watched closely because she could pose a bigger threat to the U.S. than Danielle and Earl. Why do I say that? Because Danielle is expected to break through the high with the help of a trough. Earl will try to sneak through the same weakness that Danielle will leave for him. After Earl exits stage right, I hope that’s the case, the weakened high pressure is expected to build back in stronger than what it was. With a strong high in place a storm cannot recurve into the open ocean. So they head towards the U.S.

The atmosphere changes every day and nothing is set in stone. I mention all of this to keep everyone informed and alert.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

August 26, 2010 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Danielle

Location: 24.4N 55.9W
Distance: 770 miles SE of Bermuda
Maximum Sustained Winds: 105 mph
Movement: NW at 15 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 mb

Since yesterday, Danielle commenced her, highly anticipated, turn to the NW as the NHC said she would. Since yesterday evening, her appearance and structure changed again. The eye that appeared on satellite for 2 hours was gone and her organization, as a whole, was ragged. Since then, the eye has made its appearance again.

She is a borderline category 3 hurricane at this moment. At her peak, Danielle is expected to reach category 3 status in the next 24 hours. Danielle is traveling NW at 15 MPH. She is forecasted to turn to the north and then NE keeping her away from Bermuda.

Danielle should be out of the picture by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

Tropical Storm Earl

Location: 14.9N 37.1W
Distance: 1,735 E of the Northern Leeward Islands

Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 mph
Movement: W at 17 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

Earl has not become better organized since this morning’s advisory, in fact, his inner core of convection have been eroded due to dry air. The center of Earl has been relocated 30 miles south of the 5 AM advisory. I will mention later if this will affect the future tack.

He is currently moving a tiny bit north of due west for the last 24 hours and this is expected for the next 72 hours. At that point, Earl should be north of the Leeward Islands and begin a turn to the NW due to a weakness in the high left by Danielle. IF Danielle recurves faster than expected, two models believe this will happen, the weakness in the high could close fast and allow the high to move west. This would not allow Earl to follow Danielle and will keep Earl on a slow WNW path.

The NHC believes that Earl will reach borderline category 3 status by Aug. 31. With the exception of dry air that should inhibit some strengthening, Earl should have no problem attaining hurricane status with a couple of days and slowly reaching category 2 status. Shear is expected to remain low throughout the forecast period.

Right now, it doesn’t seem that Earl would be a threat. I will continue to monitor the progress of Earl as he could threaten the U.S. down the road.

Below are the forecasted track of Danielle and Earl.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

August 25, 2010 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Danielle

Location: 19.6N 52.3W
Distance: 710 miles E of the Lesser Antilles
Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 mph
Movement: WNW at 17 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 mb

Danielle has made a comeback this morning from her ragged look yesterday. Structurally, she is not as good as a couple of days ago, but slowly getting there as an eyewall is being developed. The NHC has kept her intensity the same citing that it might be generous at this moment to do so. Down the road, Danielle will intensify due to a decrease in shear and a more favorable environment. She is forecasted to be shy of a major hurricane in another 72-96 hours.

Danielle continues to move WNW and is expected to turn NW in 24 hours as she feels the effects of a weakness in the high. There is still some uncertainties with the models on how Danielle interacts with the rough and the high building back in. The NHC believes that Danielle will stay away from the U.S. and east of Bermuda.

TD #7

Location: 14.3N 30.8W
Distance: 430 miles W of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands

Maximum Sustained Winds: 55 mph
Movement: W at 17 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

Welcome to the onboard the Cape Verde train TD #7 !! This is the area I referenced last week when I mentioned the possibility of two systems in the Atlantic during these days. TD #7 has been progressively become better organized since yesterday leading the NHC to make the classification. It is expected that TD #7 will become tropical storm Earl later today. Warm waters lie ahead of the depression while shear is expected to remain low for the next 2-3 days. A hurricane is expected by the weekend.

Where is TD #7 heading? For now, is being steered by the same ridge that Danielle is under. The west movement will continue for another 2-3 and after that TD #7 should decrease in forward speed as it reaches a weakness in the high left by Danielle. The weakness will cause TD #7 to turn more WNW.

I will continue to monitor both systems as TD #7 may become a big player down the road.

As mentioned on previous occasions, models are to be used for guidance and not as the truth. I took a look at the same model I used last week to make reference to possible arrival of Danielle and soon to be “Earl” and the discovery was not good. The model shows that by Sept. 10, we COULD be up to the name Hermine. This is why the experts did not lower their original numbers for activity this season even though we were only up to Colin a week ago. Unfortunately, we are still 15 days away from the peak of hurricane season.

Please raise your hand if you were one of those people who complained about the lack of activity this season and wished you hadn’t?

Below are two graphic to illustrate the future tracks of Danielle and TD #7.

As always, have a great !!

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.