Monthly Archives: September 2010

Nicole Update

Good Morning !!

Tropical depression #16 has been upgraded to tropical storm Nicole and all watches/warnings for Florida have been as of the 11:00 AM advisory. The forecasted track has shifted east, away from Florida, and the center is no longer expected to make landfall in Florida.

The reason for the discontinuation of the watches/warnings is because the worst weather is currently located a couple hundred miles to the south and southeast of the center; therefore putting it over the Bahamas and not Florida. I believe that it was a bit premature for the NHC to discontinue at least the tropical storm watch for Florida. What if the track changes again?

No matter the forecasted track for Nicole, rain will be present over South Florida with periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds at times.

Stay dry !!

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Some models want to develop another tropical system in the Caribbean within the next few days with the leftover energy of Nicole. They also forecast this storm to take a similar track that Nicole has taken and possibly affect Florida. I will monitor this and give you the details tomorrow.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

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September 28, 2010 Tropical Update

TD #16 is born !!

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

TD #16

Location: 20.6N 82.5W
Distance: 390 miles SSW of Miami, Florida

Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph
Movement: NNE at 10 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb

Tropical Storm Warnings:

1. Cayman Islands

2. Cuban Provinces from Matanzas eastward to Ciego de Avila

3. Northwestern and Central Bahamas

4. Jupiter Inlet southward to East Cape Sable and Florida Bay

5. Florida Keys

Tropical Storm Watches:

1. North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet

2. North of East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee, Florida

During the last 6 hours, TD #16 has become better organized and has developed a center of circulation allowing the National Hurricane Center to make the declaration. Tropical storm development is expected later today.

There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere around TD #16 which it is trying to wrap around. Due to the large size of the system, it will take some time for this to happen.

The forecasted track for TD #16 will take it through central Cuba and then South Florida by Wednesday morning. IF the center of TD #16 tracks over Miami, the worst of the weather might affect the Bahamas since the strong thunderstorms and winds are well to the east of the storm. IF the center tracks more to the west, then the worst of the weather will get closer to Miami.

Either way, cities from Central Florida through the Florida Keys will receive a lot of rain and gusty winds commencing late tonight/early tomorrow morning. By tomorrow morning (8 AM), TD #16 should be exiting the coast of Cuba and head towards South Florida.

TD #16 is forecasted by the NHC to affect South Florida as a 45 mph tropical storm. I have said it in the past and I will say it again, the NHC is very concervative when is issuing intensity forecasts. I will post later today after the models have updated how strong they forecast TD #16 will be when it nears Florida.

In conclusion, expect a lot of rain and wind for the next 24 hours commencing later tonight.

I will issue another update later today after the Hurricane Hinters examine TD #16.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

A few models have been hinting for a couple of days now of the development of another storm. This storm is forecasted to ALSO affect Florida and MIGHT be stronger than TD #16.

Time will tell………………

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Invest 96L (Nicole) Update

Below is a special update issued by the National Hurricane Center (emphasis mine):

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT…AND ONLY A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEEDED FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE…80 PERCENT… OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA…THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…THE FLORIDA KEYS…AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION… CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

I highly anticipate watches and warnings to be issued for Cuba and Florida later this morning. A Watch is issued 48 hours before landfall and a Warning is issued 36 hours in advance. Considering that landfall is expeted by Thursday/Friday, it will be purdent for the NHC to issue those watches and warnings ASAP. I will issue an update later this morning followed by an update once the Hurricane Hunters arrive to investigate "Nicole".

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Invest 96L

Good Afternoon !!

I wanted to write to inform everyone that there is a tropical wave near Belize that has a 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. The NHC has designated this are as Invest 96L.

It is expected that this area of tropical moisture will affect South Florida by Wednesday/Thursday. At the least a lot of rain and wind is expected. Many of the models predict that “Nicole” will develop from all of this.

I just wanted to post this information to establish an awareness of what is out there and the possible development of a tropical cyclone. Once a tropical cyclone develops, then we can talk about track and intensity. For now, it is like planning a wedding without a couple.

I will issue another update tomorrow morning.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Special Update

The Hurricane Hunters have investigated Invest 95L and have found enough data to justify a tropical depression; therefore the National Hurricane Center has upgraded 95L to a tropical depression.

Attached is the forecasted track which will change a few times. Please note that the NHC is forecasting TD #15 to make landfall twice. If this does not occur, expect TD #15 to possibly rapidly intensify.

More to follow….

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

September 23, 2010 Tropical Update

Hello Everyone !!

In the Southern Caribbean, we have Invest 95L. This system has organized since last night and now has a 80% chance of developing in a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. The belief is that by this weekend 95L will most likely be tropical Storm Matthew.

Not much is known regarding intensity or track just yet, but all the models agree that a strong trough of low pressure will dig into the Gulf of Mexico and pull any storm to the north and northeast (i.e. a Wilma track). Any state between Louisiana and Florida is at risk. If “Matthew” develops and stays over water with no interruption of land, atmospheric conditions are perfect for “Matthew” to rapidly intensify. If “Matthew” makes landfall in Central America, the all bets are off regarding intensity and track. This storm needs to be watched very very closely even though it is only a tropical wave.

Please take this as an informative post. I wanted to put this information out there for everyone to be alert and know of the possibilities.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

The Great Miami Hurricane

Tomorrow will mark the 84th anniversary of the Great Miami Hurricane. The category 4 hurricane devastated Miami in September 18,1926. Due to this hurricane, the Florida land boom ended and the Great Depression started early in the state.

Winds were reported at 125 mph with a pressure of 935 mb. Storm surge of 15 feet+ inundated the area causing massive property damage and fatalities. Most of the coastal residents were not evacuated because a hurricane warning was posted only a few hours in advance of landfall.

Once the eye was over downtown Miami and Miami Beach, the residents took to the streets and tried to leave the barrier islands. The calm weather lasted for 35 minutes. Many of the people were swept away off the bridges as a result of the effects of the rear eyewall.

Damage from the storm was immense !! Very few buildings in Miami or Miami Beach were left intact; they were either damaged or destroyed. The monetary damage was $100 million, but experts say that if this exact storm were to hit Miami again now, it would cause between $150-157 billion in damage. That is almost twice as much damage as hurricane Katrina caused in New Orleans.

Due to the widespread destruction of the buildings in Miami Beach, a Chief Building, Plumbing, and Electrical position was created. This person initiated and enforced the 1st building code in the United States. As a result, more than 5,000 U.S. cities did the same.

The University of Miami was founded in 1925 and opened its doors for the first time days after the hurricane passed. You probably see where I am going with this……………there athletic teams were nicknamed the Hurricanes in memory of the disaster.

As you may know, their mascot is an Ibis. The ibis is a small white bird that was selected to represent the school because it is said to be the last bird to leave before a hurricane strikes and the first to return once the hurricane is gone.