Monthly Archives: October 2010

October 21, 2010 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Tropical Storm Richard

Location: 16.2N 80.4W
Distance: 205 miles ENE of Cabo Gracias a Dios n Nicaragua/Honduras Border

Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph
Movement: SE at 6 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

Watches/warning:

None

Discussion:

The Hurricane Hunters have been investigating for some time this morning and have found enough data to justify upgrading from tropical depression to tropical storm. This is the 17 tropical storm of the season. The center of Richard is located to the west of the heaviest thunderstorms, but organization has been improving throughout the morning.

Gradual strengthening will occur while shear decreases and the possibility of dry air inhibiting development in short term. In a couple of days, high pressure will build over Richard allowing for shear and dry air to diminish. There are a couple of models that develop Richard into a major hurricane and brings him ashore between in a few days. This scenario is not out of the question and depends on Richard’s developmental process.

At this point it is too early to know for sure what will occur.

Stay tuned for more information tomorrow morning.

to pass by very closely or even make landfall by late Sunday/early Monday as a major hurricane.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

There is a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that will not threaten the islands nor the U.S.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

October 13, 2010 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Paula

Location: 21.3N 85.8W
Distance: 65 miles WSW of the western tip of Cuba

Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 mph
Movement: N at 5 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 984 mb

Hurricane Warning: Pinar del Rio, Cuba

Tropical Storm Warning: coast of Yucatan from Cancun to San Felipe

Tropical Strom Watch: Florida Keys from Craig Key westward including the Dry Tortugas

Good Morning !!

Paula is a small compact hurricane passing through the Yucatan Channel. Her presentation is excellent on the Cuban radar and given the measurements taken by the HH earlier this morning, her initial intensity will be kept. It is possible that when the HH reach Paula at 2 PM, she could have weakened a bit already.

Paula’s close proximity to high shear and her expected passage over the mountainous terrain of Cuba should contribute to the weakening trend forecasted by the NHC. Her northward movement should cease very soon and the forecasted re-curvature towards the E/ENE.

The models are split into two camps: (1) Paula continues to travel a more to the north and then turn towards the ENE/NE bringing her a lot closer to South Florida. (2) the NHC official forecast.

At this point, no solution is 100% correct. Not even the experts are convinced (excerpt from the 11:00 AM NHC Discussion):

GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY…A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.

What is known? Paula will weaken into a tropical storm due to high shear.

I will continue to monitor Paula and send out another email if necessary.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

October 12, 2010 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Paula

Location: 18.6N 85.7W
Distance: 155 miles SSE of Cozumel, Mexico

Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph
Movement: NNW at 10 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb

Paula is a small hurricane that went from tropical depression yesterday. Throughout the morning, Paula has developed a “possible” eye feature on satellite and has a ring of deep convection consisting of an eyewall.

The National Hurricane Center states that it is possible that Paula is stronger than the 75 mph they state, but they rather hold-off any increase in wind speed until the Hurricane Hunters reach her this afternoon.

Shear is expected to be low for a day and then increase while helping to weaken Paula between days 2-3 as the further north she goes, the more shear and dry air she will encounter; hence the weakening trend forecasted.

Paula is forecasted by the NHC to reach the tips of Mexico and western Cuba by 7 pm Wednesday and then meander as seen below. This is caused by very low steering currents that will be present during the latter part of the forecast period.

It is not known what Paula will do yet as she can do two things: (1) stay a hurricane, be picked up by the trough, and pushed NE. (2) weaken below hurricane status and meander in the Caribbean for days due to the steering currents and below hurricane status.

The models are all over the place with Paula. Most don’t develop her any further while others meander her in open waters.

I will continue to watch this closely and update everyone accordingly.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

UPDATE: Tropical Storm Paula

Invest 98L has been upgraded to tropical storm Paula. Hurricane Hunters have confirmed that tropical storm Paula has winds of 45 mph and a pressure of 1002 mb.

I will have more information later tonight if needed.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

October 11, 2010 Tropical Update

Good Morning !!

There is activity to report this morning in the Western Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center designated an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms Invest 98-L last week. This area has become much better organized over the weekend and satellite data shows that invest should be a tropical depression at the moment.

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this area later today. I expect them to find a tropical depression and 98L to be upgraded to tropical storm Paula tomorrow.

The center of 98L was forecasted to interact with the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras border, but satellite images show that the center will stay offshore. This means that the wave should not have trouble continuing to organize and slowly intensify in the Gulf of Honduras.

Models are all over the place and are not to be trusted. They range from (1) a trough picking up “future Paula” and taking her between Florida and Cuba into the Bahamas. (2) “future Paula” tracks towards the western tip of Cuba and miss the trough.

At this point, all of this is speculative. Once a tropical depression develops, then we can rely a little more on the models.

I will keep everyone informed…………………

Have a great day !!