Monthly Archives: June 2011

June 30, 2011 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Tropical Storm Arlene

Location: 21.6N 97.7W
Distance: 45 miles SSE from Tampico, Mexico

Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 mph
Movement: West at 7 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb

Hurricane Watch: None

Tropical Storm Warning: La Pesca to Palma Sola

The center of Arlene has made landfall along eastern coast of Mexico according to satellite imagery and data from the Mexican automated station at Isla Lobos. This station reported a minimum pressure of 993 mb as the center pass to the north and an intensity estimate suggests that Arlene still has winds of 65 mph.

The current “average” motion is west at 7 mph. High pressure over northern Mexico and the U.S. southern plains should continue to steer Arlene in a general west to west-southwest motion until she dissipates over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico in 24-36 hours.

I will issue a short update after the 5:00 pm advisory.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

June 29, 2011 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Tropical Storm Arlene

Location: 21.2N 95.7W
Distance: 155 miles from Tampico, Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph
Movement: West at 8 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

Hurricane Watch: From Tuxpan to La Cruz

Tropical Storm Warning: Barra de Nautla to Bahia Algodones

Tropical Storm Arlene is becoming better organized this morning with the center developing stronger storms. The Hurricane Hunters (HH) are currently flying in Arlene and have reported winds around 50 mph which is in agreement with the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Conditions are becoming more conducive around Arlene for further development, but the lack of a well-defined center would defy the SHIPS predicted rapid intensification, an increase of 30-35 mph, over the next 24 hours. The NHC believes there is a high possibility that this prediction has some merit, so they have increased their numbers to reflect the possibility of Arlene making landfall as a hurricane. Hence, the hurricane watch issued for Northeastern Mexico during this advisory. Hurricane conditions are to be expected in the next 36 hours with tropical storm conditions beginning to affect Mexico within the next 24 hours.

Earlier this morning, the HH found that the center of Arlene was farther south than originally thought based on satellite imagery. The NHC has reflected this position change on their forecast cone. A westward motion should continue for the next day or two with a possible south of westward track. This is due to high pressure north and northwest of Arlene. Some of the forecasting models predict more of a turn to the left as Arlene approaches the coast.

Given the large circulation of Arlene, please don’t focus on where she will make landfall. Her effects will be felt over a large area well away from the center. Be safe !!

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.