Category Archives: Hurricane

August 25, 2011 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Irene

Location: 25.9N 76.8W

Distance: 75 miles NNE of Nassau, Bahamas

Maximum Sustained Winds: 115 mph

Movement: NNW at 12 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 951 mb

Hurricane Warning: The Central and Northwestern Bahamas

Hurricane Watch: North of Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border including the Pamlico, Albemarle, and Currituck Islands

Tropical Storm Warning: North of Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina

Tropical Storm Watch: None

Irene is still not done tearing through the Bahamas. She is approaching Grand Abaco Island. A turn to the NNW has commenced according to the 11 AM advisory. Environmental conditions are very favorable or strengthening with low shear, excellent outflow, and very warm waters. I believe she will strengthen to a category 4 before she reaches North Carolina with a slow weakening occurring on her way to landfall. North Carolina should expect a storm category 3 hurricane bearing down on them on Saturday.

After North Carolina, Irene should track up the east coast and affect every state from North Carolina and Maine. Irene is a very large storm with tropical storm force winds expanding 290 miles from the center and hurricane force winds extend 70 miles. Do not focus on the track of Irene. She will affect everyone in some way.

Depending on how much land interaction Irene has, the possibility that Irene can affect Long Island, New York and southern New England as a category 2 hurricane is very possible. If you live in the path of Irene, please listen to your local government’s emergency messages. Evacuate is you are told to and stay safe.

Stay tuned…………………………….

Tropical Depression #10

Location: 13.3N 31.8W

Distance: 505 miles W of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands

Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph

Movement: WNW at 12 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

Hurricane Warning: None

Hurricane Watch: None

Tropical Storm Warning: None

Tropical Storm Watch: None

The track for TD #10 is a bit complicated. At first it will track NW and then turn to the west. We have to wait a few more days to see how the end of the track plays out. This cyclone is far away. There is plenty of time to watch it.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

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Hurricane Irene 11 AM Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Irene

Location: 22.4N 73.9W

Distance: 100 miles SE of Long Island Bahamas

Maximum Sustained Winds: 115 mph

Movement: NW at 12 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 956 mb

Hurricane Warning: The Southeastern, Central, and Northwestern Bahamas

Hurricane Watch: None

Tropical Storm Warning: The Turks and Caicos Islands

Tropical Storm Watch: None

The much anticipated turn has occurred according to the National Hurricane Center in this advisory. As 8:00 AM EDT, Irene was upgraded to category three status. She has continued to strengthen this morning with the eye becoming more distinct. There has been constant monitoring with Irene by not only NOAA, but the Air Force. Multiple planes are currently flying inside of her as we speak. Irene’s structure also has become well established.

Ahead of her are very warm waters which will help her reach category four status within the next 36 hours. After this, an eye wall replacement cycle might take during the next 48 hours. That means that her current eye wall will be replaced with a new one. This is a common occurrence with powerful hurricanes. The eye wall replacement, along with southwesterly shear and colder waters, will induce a slight weakening trend within the next 96 hours. Don’t let your guard down with that last statement. Hurricane Irene is still forecasted to be a large and powerful hurricane.

Where is she going? The answer is a bit clearer this morning then yesterday. The models are in good agreement within the first 2-3 days of the forecast. After day 3, they diverge a bit. Some models say that Irene will turn to the NNE after the initial northwest and then northerly turn; keeping the core of Irene off shore. Others say that she will turn to the north; affecting the mid-Atlantic states. The NHC says that both of these scenarios are viable at this moment.

What does all of this mean for the mid-Atlantic states? There are multiple scenarios if you follow the models. A consensus of all the models is the forecast the NHC has put together. If the NHC forecast holds up to be accurate, the outer banks of North Carolina will feel the full force of Irene by Saturday morning/early afternoon.

Any state north of North Carolina along the southeastern U.S. coast should pay very close attention to the path of Irene once she approaches North Carolina. Hurricane force conditions are expected in Cape Cod by Sunday evening and tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. cities of Philadelphia, New York City, Hartford, Providence, and Boston.

Any wobble to the west could easily put her eye through your state. If you live in the outer banks of North Carolina, please heed the warnings and evacuate. Anyone further north, pay close attention to the instructions your local government will give you.

Stay tuned for more information………………………..

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

The National Hurricane Center has tagged a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic as Invest 90L. This tropical wave has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. No need to worry about this at the moment. It is almost 2 weeks away.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Hurricane Irene 11:00 AM Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Irene

Location: 20.5N 71.0W
Distance: 70 miles S of Grand Turk Island
Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 mph
Movement: WNW at 12 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 mb

Hurricane Warning: Turks and Caicos Islands, Southeastern, Central, and Northwestern Bahamas

Hurricane Watch: North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicolas eastward to the Dominican Republic border

Tropical Storm Warning: North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Haiti border, North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicolas eastward to the Dominican Republic border

Tropical Storm Watch: None

Hurricane Irene has not strengthened since being classified a category 2 hurricane last night. In the last couple of satellite images, hint of an eye is visible, but recon says that Irene does not have a closed center of circulation.

Currently, 15-25- mph shear is affecting Irene and it will stick around for a couple of days; therefore, models don’t show much strengthening during this time. There are two models that aggressively show Irene as a borderline category 5 storm off the coast of the Carolinas. Most of the intensity models don’t show that and the NHC favors the less aggressive models for now.

Irene’s average motion during the last 6 hours has been WNW. A trough is expected to weaken the western portion of the High pressure currently steering Irene. Once the weakness is pronounced, it will provide an opening for Irene to pass through. If the trough is not a strong as the models are projecting, Irene heads west.

The Bahamas are in line to receive a major blow from Irene as the forecasted track calls for her to traverse through the heart of the Bahamas. Irene is expected to intensify as she approaches the Bahamas, but that won’t happen until she can escape the coast of Hispañola which is causing some disruption.

The models have been in good agreement since last night’s run due to the data collected using the NOAA G IV jet and the weather balloons that have been launched every six hours from the CONUS east coast to sample the atmosphere ahead of Irene. The NOAA jet was crucial for the models as the data collected really helped them come in agreement with a track off Florida, but approaching the Carolina Coast.
The billion dollar question is: At what point will Irene turn NW? The NHC believes it will commence tomorrow towards the NW and then gradually track in a northerly direction towards the outer banks of North Carolina by Saturday morning/afternoon as a major hurricane. Once landfall occurs, Irene is expected to continue to track over land as a minimal hurricane and affect Virginia by early morning Sunday. This is the current track and it can change.

Anyone along the track of Irene, please heed all warnings. Irene is forecasted to be a strong category 3 hurricane with the possibility of reaching category 4 status.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

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Hurricane Irene 8 PM Update

Irene is now a category 2 storm with winds of 100 mph. The track of Irene has not changed, but a couple of models have shifted to the west. Is this a trend towards Florida? We don’t know.

Earlier today, NOAA flew their G IV Jet ahead of Irene to survey the atmosphere. The data collected today by the jet will be inputed into the models and it will be reflected in the over night hours. The models could change depending on the data collected.

Please keep a close watch to Irene as this will be a dangerous hurricane.

Stay tuned for more information.

Hurricane Irene 5:00 PM Update

I will post later with more details……

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

Hurricane Irene 11 AM Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Irene

Location: 19.2N 67.5W

Distance: 70 miles NE of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic

Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 mph

Movement: WNW at 13 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 988 mb

Hurricane Warning: North coast of the Dominican Republic from Haiti border eastward to Cabo Engano, Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

Hurricane Watch: North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicolas eastward to the Dominican Republic border, Central Bahamas

Tropical Storm Warning: Puerto Rico: Vieques and Culebra, south coast of Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the Haiti border, All of Haiti

Tropical Storm Watch: None

Irene made landfall over Puerto Rico early this morning and is now in open waters. She continues to become better organized as seen on radar and satellite images.

The official track from the National Hurricane Center now has Irene traveling along the coast of Hispañola and not making landfall. This is important because the land mass of Hispañola would have really disrupted Irene. It is still possible that Irene could wobble onto land, but that is not expected. This is the reason why, along with very favorable atmospheric conditions, the NHC now forecasts Irene to reach Category 3 status later in the forecast period.

Where is Irene going? Yes, the cone shifted away from Florida, but Irene is a growing storm. The models are in good agreement that a trough of low pressure will dip south and create a weakness in the high to allow Irene to turn more to the NW and N, away from Florida, but unfortunately around the vicinity of North Carolina. This is the thinking NOW. It could change tomorrow. There are two very reliable models that continue to depict a direct hit to South Florida in 96 hours.

Everyone from Key West to North Carolina, should keep a very close on the track of Irene for the next 3 days. The current track is not set in stone and is dependent on trough and high pressure interaction. If the trough is NOT as strong as the models believed, the high stays in place and Irene moves closer to Florida. If the trough does what the models are currently showing, the current track will hold up. The first scenario is still possible.

Another possible scenario is if Irene becomes a major hurricane, she could influence the environment around her. What do I mean? Assume the trough does create a weakness in the high. If Irene is in the right spot, she could fill in the weakness in the high herself on her own; therefore, keeping the high in place and move towards Florida. This is not a solution the National Hurricane Center has mentioned nor entertained. I just like to mention everything to you guys since your local weather person might not.

Stay tuned for more updates………………..i will try to issue another advisory later today.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

September 12, 2010 Tropical Update

Summary of 2:30 PM EDT

Tropical Storm Igor

Location: 17.7N 46.1W
Distance: 1,120 miles E of the Northern Leeward Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds: 135 mph
Movement: W at 14 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 950 mb

Igor is a large and powerful category 4 hurricane. He has been rapidly intensification since this morning and shows no sign of slowing down. At 5 AM, Igor was an 80 MPH hurricane. At 11 AM, he was bumped up to 105 MPH. I believe that by 5 PM, Igor will be a strong category 4.

Igor is expected to track to the west for the next 2 days and then turn a bit to the WNW. After that it becomes a bit tricky. A trough of low pressure is expected to pull Igor to the WNW and then NW. There are a lot of uncertainties with the track so not a lot of credibility is given towards the end of the forecasted track.

I will continue to closely monitor dangerous hurricane Igor. The next advisory will be issued tomorrow morning unless an event warrants a posting.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.