Category Archives: Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

TD #12 Forms

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Tropical Depression #12

Location: 9.8N 27.5W

Distance: 650 miles SSW of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands

Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph

Movement: W at 15 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb

Hurricane Warning: None

Hurricane Watch: None

Tropical Storm Warning: None

Tropical Storm Watch: None

We have our 12th tropical depression of the season very far away in the eastern Atlantic. If TD #12 (Katia) were to threaten the United States, it will occur in 12-14 days. Little has changed this morning regarding organization and structure. Currently, shear is inhibiting organization and it should subdue very soon allowing for a more favor environment for TD #12. The National Hurricane Center forecasts TD #12 to attain hurricane status in two days and a strong category 2 hurricane in 5 days.

Where is TD #12 going? It is way too early to know yet, but the models are in good agreement that in 5 days TD #12 will be a few hundred miles of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Currently, high pressure is steering TD #12, but a trough is expected to create a weakness along the western side of the high between 40W – 50W over the next couple of days. This should cause the depression to turn more towards the WNW within the next day or so. Further along in the forecast period, the models are showing the weakness in the ridge filling in (becoming stronger) westward. This is verbatim by the NHC:

This should prevent the cyclone from moving significantly pole ward during the forecast period.

It way too early, but if the above is true further down the road, this could mean trouble for the U.S. This means that the high would be strong enough to block any movement to the north for TD #12.

Time will tell………………………..another update tomorrow.

Stay tuned…………………………….

Today marks the 6 anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. There is no need to elaborate on her destruction as we all still vividly remember. Please send prayers to the 1,836 people that lost their lives and their families.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

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August 22, 2010 Tropics Update

11:00 AM Update

Location: 12.7N 34.1W
Distance: 665 miles west of the southern most Cape Verde Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 MPH
Movement: NW at 12 MPH
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 MB

As mentioned yesterday, we have our 6th tropical depression of the season. In the last 24 hours, no strengthening has occurred and the center has been exposed. This is due to shear currently affecting the depression. The center has been moving towards the N and NW while the deep convection continues to move west. With that said, we should have a tropical storm between today and Monday.

The future track of TD #6 is a bit complex as there are still a lot of factors to look at. Models have shifted towards the west in the last few runs. This is a trend that needs to be watched to see if it continues in later model runs.

Some of the models are hinting that the high pressure will be strong and allow for  TD #6 to head west to WNW and then get picked up by a strong trough. Another scenario is that the high pressure will not be strong enough as a trough affects it and TD #6 will find the weakness in the high and pass through there.

As for intensity, it will be slow to occur for until the center of circulation is able to get under the deep convection of thunderstorms. Once that occurs, then we should see TD #6 get to tropical storm and hurricane status quickly. The longer is takes for TD #6 to develop into a hurricane, the more west a storm of this intensity will travel. The weaker a storm, the less it feels a weakness in the high pressure.

Here is a map from the NHC of the future track of TD #6:

For now, I will continue to keep a close eye on TD #6.

Elsewhere In The Tropics:

There is a very impressive wave that has exited Africa today that could be a factor next week in the tropics. Definitely something to watch.

I will have another update tomorrow morning.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

BREAKING NEWS

Tropical depression #6 is born.

More information to follow in a bit as I gather more details from the NHC.

TD #5 Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Location: 27.8N 86.8W
Distance: 165 miles ESE of the mouth of the Mississippi River
Maximum Sustained Winds: 30 mph
Movement: NW at 12 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb

Good Morning !!

As you all know by now TD #5 was born yesterday evening. Yes, it is the same system that caused two straight days of bad weather across Florida. Since its exit of the SW pat of the state yesterday, TD #5 went from a storm trying to develop to one not looking so good. The thought is that TD #5 will make landfall as a minimal tropical storm in SE Louisiana Thursday morning.

Due to the size of the depression, tropical storm conditions could be felt as early as tonight/early Thursday morning. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Destin, Florida to Intercoastal City, Louisiana including Lake Pontchartrain and New Orleans. Since TD #5 is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast of Louisiana, rainfall will become an issue. Anywhere from 3-5 inches of rain could fall with 8 inches a possibility in isolated areas. As for storm surge, 1-3 feet is expected along the coast and east of where the center make landfall.

The next update will be issued tomorrow morning.

Have a great day !!

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.