Category Archives: Uncategorized

September 1, 2011 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Katia

Location: 15.5N 47.5W

Distance: 1,050 miles E of the Northern Leeward Islands

Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph

Movement: W at 18 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb

Hurricane Watch: None

Tropical Storm Warning: None

Tropical Storm Watch: None

Katia is still far out in the eastern Atlantic with no land in sight. Currently, shear and dry air are her main inhibitors towards strengthening, but that is expected to slowly diminish and allow Katia to strengthen steadily within 36 hours. The NHC forecasts Katia will be a major hurricane in 3 days.

Katia is expected to continue travelling west for another 12-24 hours and then turn towards the WNW as she approaches a weakness in the high. At this point, the models becomes more scattered on the possible future of Katia.

For the last 7-8 hours, Katia has been moving in a general west direction at 18-20 mph. The longer she continues to move west, the farther she will get before making her forecasted turn. The only concern I have is that the track keeps on bending to the left after each advisory. Time will tell………………………

This storm will be around for at least another 8-10 days.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

There are currently two invests – one in the Gulf of Mexico and the other in the vicinity of Bermuda. The latter invest should stay away from land while the invest in the GOM will become a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. If you live along the Gulf coast, please stay tuned to the blog for more information in the coming days. This one has the potential to be a major rain maker.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

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June 30, 2011 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Tropical Storm Arlene

Location: 21.6N 97.7W
Distance: 45 miles SSE from Tampico, Mexico

Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 mph
Movement: West at 7 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb

Hurricane Watch: None

Tropical Storm Warning: La Pesca to Palma Sola

The center of Arlene has made landfall along eastern coast of Mexico according to satellite imagery and data from the Mexican automated station at Isla Lobos. This station reported a minimum pressure of 993 mb as the center pass to the north and an intensity estimate suggests that Arlene still has winds of 65 mph.

The current “average” motion is west at 7 mph. High pressure over northern Mexico and the U.S. southern plains should continue to steer Arlene in a general west to west-southwest motion until she dissipates over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico in 24-36 hours.

I will issue a short update after the 5:00 pm advisory.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

June 29, 2011 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Tropical Storm Arlene

Location: 21.2N 95.7W
Distance: 155 miles from Tampico, Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph
Movement: West at 8 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

Hurricane Watch: From Tuxpan to La Cruz

Tropical Storm Warning: Barra de Nautla to Bahia Algodones

Tropical Storm Arlene is becoming better organized this morning with the center developing stronger storms. The Hurricane Hunters (HH) are currently flying in Arlene and have reported winds around 50 mph which is in agreement with the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Conditions are becoming more conducive around Arlene for further development, but the lack of a well-defined center would defy the SHIPS predicted rapid intensification, an increase of 30-35 mph, over the next 24 hours. The NHC believes there is a high possibility that this prediction has some merit, so they have increased their numbers to reflect the possibility of Arlene making landfall as a hurricane. Hence, the hurricane watch issued for Northeastern Mexico during this advisory. Hurricane conditions are to be expected in the next 36 hours with tropical storm conditions beginning to affect Mexico within the next 24 hours.

Earlier this morning, the HH found that the center of Arlene was farther south than originally thought based on satellite imagery. The NHC has reflected this position change on their forecast cone. A westward motion should continue for the next day or two with a possible south of westward track. This is due to high pressure north and northwest of Arlene. Some of the forecasting models predict more of a turn to the left as Arlene approaches the coast.

Given the large circulation of Arlene, please don’t focus on where she will make landfall. Her effects will be felt over a large area well away from the center. Be safe !!

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

October 21, 2010 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Tropical Storm Richard

Location: 16.2N 80.4W
Distance: 205 miles ENE of Cabo Gracias a Dios n Nicaragua/Honduras Border

Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph
Movement: SE at 6 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

Watches/warning:

None

Discussion:

The Hurricane Hunters have been investigating for some time this morning and have found enough data to justify upgrading from tropical depression to tropical storm. This is the 17 tropical storm of the season. The center of Richard is located to the west of the heaviest thunderstorms, but organization has been improving throughout the morning.

Gradual strengthening will occur while shear decreases and the possibility of dry air inhibiting development in short term. In a couple of days, high pressure will build over Richard allowing for shear and dry air to diminish. There are a couple of models that develop Richard into a major hurricane and brings him ashore between in a few days. This scenario is not out of the question and depends on Richard’s developmental process.

At this point it is too early to know for sure what will occur.

Stay tuned for more information tomorrow morning.

to pass by very closely or even make landfall by late Sunday/early Monday as a major hurricane.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

There is a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that will not threaten the islands nor the U.S.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

October 13, 2010 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Paula

Location: 21.3N 85.8W
Distance: 65 miles WSW of the western tip of Cuba

Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 mph
Movement: N at 5 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 984 mb

Hurricane Warning: Pinar del Rio, Cuba

Tropical Storm Warning: coast of Yucatan from Cancun to San Felipe

Tropical Strom Watch: Florida Keys from Craig Key westward including the Dry Tortugas

Good Morning !!

Paula is a small compact hurricane passing through the Yucatan Channel. Her presentation is excellent on the Cuban radar and given the measurements taken by the HH earlier this morning, her initial intensity will be kept. It is possible that when the HH reach Paula at 2 PM, she could have weakened a bit already.

Paula’s close proximity to high shear and her expected passage over the mountainous terrain of Cuba should contribute to the weakening trend forecasted by the NHC. Her northward movement should cease very soon and the forecasted re-curvature towards the E/ENE.

The models are split into two camps: (1) Paula continues to travel a more to the north and then turn towards the ENE/NE bringing her a lot closer to South Florida. (2) the NHC official forecast.

At this point, no solution is 100% correct. Not even the experts are convinced (excerpt from the 11:00 AM NHC Discussion):

GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY…A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.

What is known? Paula will weaken into a tropical storm due to high shear.

I will continue to monitor Paula and send out another email if necessary.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

October 12, 2010 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Paula

Location: 18.6N 85.7W
Distance: 155 miles SSE of Cozumel, Mexico

Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph
Movement: NNW at 10 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb

Paula is a small hurricane that went from tropical depression yesterday. Throughout the morning, Paula has developed a “possible” eye feature on satellite and has a ring of deep convection consisting of an eyewall.

The National Hurricane Center states that it is possible that Paula is stronger than the 75 mph they state, but they rather hold-off any increase in wind speed until the Hurricane Hunters reach her this afternoon.

Shear is expected to be low for a day and then increase while helping to weaken Paula between days 2-3 as the further north she goes, the more shear and dry air she will encounter; hence the weakening trend forecasted.

Paula is forecasted by the NHC to reach the tips of Mexico and western Cuba by 7 pm Wednesday and then meander as seen below. This is caused by very low steering currents that will be present during the latter part of the forecast period.

It is not known what Paula will do yet as she can do two things: (1) stay a hurricane, be picked up by the trough, and pushed NE. (2) weaken below hurricane status and meander in the Caribbean for days due to the steering currents and below hurricane status.

The models are all over the place with Paula. Most don’t develop her any further while others meander her in open waters.

I will continue to watch this closely and update everyone accordingly.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

UPDATE: Tropical Storm Paula

Invest 98L has been upgraded to tropical storm Paula. Hurricane Hunters have confirmed that tropical storm Paula has winds of 45 mph and a pressure of 1002 mb.

I will have more information later tonight if needed.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.