Hurricane Irene 8 PM Update

Irene is now a category 2 storm with winds of 100 mph. The track of Irene has not changed, but a couple of models have shifted to the west. Is this a trend towards Florida? We don’t know.

Earlier today, NOAA flew their G IV Jet ahead of Irene to survey the atmosphere. The data collected today by the jet will be inputed into the models and it will be reflected in the over night hours. The models could change depending on the data collected.

Please keep a close watch to Irene as this will be a dangerous hurricane.

Stay tuned for more information.

Advertisements

Hurricane Irene 5:00 PM Update

I will post later with more details……

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

Hurricane Irene 11 AM Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Irene

Location: 19.2N 67.5W

Distance: 70 miles NE of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic

Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 mph

Movement: WNW at 13 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 988 mb

Hurricane Warning: North coast of the Dominican Republic from Haiti border eastward to Cabo Engano, Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

Hurricane Watch: North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicolas eastward to the Dominican Republic border, Central Bahamas

Tropical Storm Warning: Puerto Rico: Vieques and Culebra, south coast of Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the Haiti border, All of Haiti

Tropical Storm Watch: None

Irene made landfall over Puerto Rico early this morning and is now in open waters. She continues to become better organized as seen on radar and satellite images.

The official track from the National Hurricane Center now has Irene traveling along the coast of Hispañola and not making landfall. This is important because the land mass of Hispañola would have really disrupted Irene. It is still possible that Irene could wobble onto land, but that is not expected. This is the reason why, along with very favorable atmospheric conditions, the NHC now forecasts Irene to reach Category 3 status later in the forecast period.

Where is Irene going? Yes, the cone shifted away from Florida, but Irene is a growing storm. The models are in good agreement that a trough of low pressure will dip south and create a weakness in the high to allow Irene to turn more to the NW and N, away from Florida, but unfortunately around the vicinity of North Carolina. This is the thinking NOW. It could change tomorrow. There are two very reliable models that continue to depict a direct hit to South Florida in 96 hours.

Everyone from Key West to North Carolina, should keep a very close on the track of Irene for the next 3 days. The current track is not set in stone and is dependent on trough and high pressure interaction. If the trough is NOT as strong as the models believed, the high stays in place and Irene moves closer to Florida. If the trough does what the models are currently showing, the current track will hold up. The first scenario is still possible.

Another possible scenario is if Irene becomes a major hurricane, she could influence the environment around her. What do I mean? Assume the trough does create a weakness in the high. If Irene is in the right spot, she could fill in the weakness in the high herself on her own; therefore, keeping the high in place and move towards Florida. This is not a solution the National Hurricane Center has mentioned nor entertained. I just like to mention everything to you guys since your local weather person might not.

Stay tuned for more updates………………..i will try to issue another advisory later today.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Tropical Irene 8:00 PM Advisory

From the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST…2300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.9N 58.5W
ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM E OF DOMINICA ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

20110820-073719.jpg

Tropical Irene Forms

The Hurricane Hunters have found a closed circulation while flying through Irene.

The National Hurricane Center will issue a special update soon along with the usual package they release.

I will post later with all the details.

Invest 97L Update

Invest 97L continues to develop, but no tropical depression/storm development yet. Since yesterday, 97L has become much better organized and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is a 90% chance a tropical cyclone will develop within the next 48 hours.

The Hurricane Hunters are still investigating 97L and have found winds to justify a tropical storm, but a closed circulation was not found. 97L is a large wave with dangerous potential. The closer it gets to the U.S., the better the atmosphere will be for development.

Again, models at this point are not reliable, but I can’t help to notice that they are very tightly clustered for the next 4-5 days. That is unusually rare because models that far out are very spread out. Those living in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispañola, and Cuba should pay close attention to 97L in the next 3-4 days. After that the threat shifts to the Bahamas and Florida. Definitely something to watch next week.

Stay tuned for another update tomorrow.

20110820-052420.jpg

Invest 97L

The National Hurricane Center has designated an area of concern (Invest 97L) located at 13.6N 49.3W, about 900 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles. This area has been given a 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. In the last 12 hours, 97L has shown signs of getting its act together due to the atmosphere becoming slightly more conducive for development. 97L is expected to become a tropical depression between Saturday and Sunday. The farther west 97L travels, the warmer the ocean is.

The models are in very good agreement with the track of 97L for the next 3-4 days. 97L is expected to track into the Caribbean and affect the Lesser Antilles with the possibility of tropical storm conditions Saturday night into Sunday morning. Once 97L approaches the southern coast of Hispañola, the models diverge. The models are spread out between the central Gulf and North Carolina. I will say that a few of the models consistently have 97L making landfall in Florida as a category 2-3 storm a week from today. Remember that Hispañola and the eastern tip of Cuba are mountainous terrain and are tropical cyclone killers. The Hurricane Hunters are going to fly around 97L tomorrow and “get a feel” for the storm and its surroundings.

This APPEARS to be the first storm of the 2011 season to threaten the Continental U.S. with a hurricane landfall.

It is way too EARLY to pay attention to any model and consider it “set in stone” information. The system first has to develop. Once this occurs, then the models will get a better handle on 97L. I decided to mention to you all of the information only to keep you alert of what is going on.

Stay tuned…………….

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.