Invest 90L

Good Morning !!

I wanted to discuss briefly Invest 90L. Currently, this tropical wave is located 50 miles northeast of Cancun, Mexico moving west-northwest at 14 mph. In the last 24 hours, this wave has become much better organized. Yesterday at this time, this tropical wave had a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. This morning the chance has increased to 80%. There is a good chance that 90L will become a tropical depression, but it will not affect land east of Louisiana.

Stay tuned.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

June 30, 2011 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Tropical Storm Arlene

Location: 21.6N 97.7W
Distance: 45 miles SSE from Tampico, Mexico

Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 mph
Movement: West at 7 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb

Hurricane Watch: None

Tropical Storm Warning: La Pesca to Palma Sola

The center of Arlene has made landfall along eastern coast of Mexico according to satellite imagery and data from the Mexican automated station at Isla Lobos. This station reported a minimum pressure of 993 mb as the center pass to the north and an intensity estimate suggests that Arlene still has winds of 65 mph.

The current “average” motion is west at 7 mph. High pressure over northern Mexico and the U.S. southern plains should continue to steer Arlene in a general west to west-southwest motion until she dissipates over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico in 24-36 hours.

I will issue a short update after the 5:00 pm advisory.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

June 29, 2011 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Tropical Storm Arlene

Location: 21.2N 95.7W
Distance: 155 miles from Tampico, Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph
Movement: West at 8 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

Hurricane Watch: From Tuxpan to La Cruz

Tropical Storm Warning: Barra de Nautla to Bahia Algodones

Tropical Storm Arlene is becoming better organized this morning with the center developing stronger storms. The Hurricane Hunters (HH) are currently flying in Arlene and have reported winds around 50 mph which is in agreement with the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Conditions are becoming more conducive around Arlene for further development, but the lack of a well-defined center would defy the SHIPS predicted rapid intensification, an increase of 30-35 mph, over the next 24 hours. The NHC believes there is a high possibility that this prediction has some merit, so they have increased their numbers to reflect the possibility of Arlene making landfall as a hurricane. Hence, the hurricane watch issued for Northeastern Mexico during this advisory. Hurricane conditions are to be expected in the next 36 hours with tropical storm conditions beginning to affect Mexico within the next 24 hours.

Earlier this morning, the HH found that the center of Arlene was farther south than originally thought based on satellite imagery. The NHC has reflected this position change on their forecast cone. A westward motion should continue for the next day or two with a possible south of westward track. This is due to high pressure north and northwest of Arlene. Some of the forecasting models predict more of a turn to the left as Arlene approaches the coast.

Given the large circulation of Arlene, please don’t focus on where she will make landfall. Her effects will be felt over a large area well away from the center. Be safe !!

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

October 21, 2010 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Tropical Storm Richard

Location: 16.2N 80.4W
Distance: 205 miles ENE of Cabo Gracias a Dios n Nicaragua/Honduras Border

Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph
Movement: SE at 6 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

Watches/warning:

None

Discussion:

The Hurricane Hunters have been investigating for some time this morning and have found enough data to justify upgrading from tropical depression to tropical storm. This is the 17 tropical storm of the season. The center of Richard is located to the west of the heaviest thunderstorms, but organization has been improving throughout the morning.

Gradual strengthening will occur while shear decreases and the possibility of dry air inhibiting development in short term. In a couple of days, high pressure will build over Richard allowing for shear and dry air to diminish. There are a couple of models that develop Richard into a major hurricane and brings him ashore between in a few days. This scenario is not out of the question and depends on Richard’s developmental process.

At this point it is too early to know for sure what will occur.

Stay tuned for more information tomorrow morning.

to pass by very closely or even make landfall by late Sunday/early Monday as a major hurricane.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

There is a tropical wave off the coast of Africa that will not threaten the islands nor the U.S.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

October 13, 2010 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Paula

Location: 21.3N 85.8W
Distance: 65 miles WSW of the western tip of Cuba

Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 mph
Movement: N at 5 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 984 mb

Hurricane Warning: Pinar del Rio, Cuba

Tropical Storm Warning: coast of Yucatan from Cancun to San Felipe

Tropical Strom Watch: Florida Keys from Craig Key westward including the Dry Tortugas

Good Morning !!

Paula is a small compact hurricane passing through the Yucatan Channel. Her presentation is excellent on the Cuban radar and given the measurements taken by the HH earlier this morning, her initial intensity will be kept. It is possible that when the HH reach Paula at 2 PM, she could have weakened a bit already.

Paula’s close proximity to high shear and her expected passage over the mountainous terrain of Cuba should contribute to the weakening trend forecasted by the NHC. Her northward movement should cease very soon and the forecasted re-curvature towards the E/ENE.

The models are split into two camps: (1) Paula continues to travel a more to the north and then turn towards the ENE/NE bringing her a lot closer to South Florida. (2) the NHC official forecast.

At this point, no solution is 100% correct. Not even the experts are convinced (excerpt from the 11:00 AM NHC Discussion):

GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY…A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.

What is known? Paula will weaken into a tropical storm due to high shear.

I will continue to monitor Paula and send out another email if necessary.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

1100 am 10 13 2010 forecast map

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October 12, 2010 Tropical Update

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Paula

Location: 18.6N 85.7W
Distance: 155 miles SSE of Cozumel, Mexico

Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph
Movement: NNW at 10 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb

Paula is a small hurricane that went from tropical depression yesterday. Throughout the morning, Paula has developed a “possible” eye feature on satellite and has a ring of deep convection consisting of an eyewall.

The National Hurricane Center states that it is possible that Paula is stronger than the 75 mph they state, but they rather hold-off any increase in wind speed until the Hurricane Hunters reach her this afternoon.

Shear is expected to be low for a day and then increase while helping to weaken Paula between days 2-3 as the further north she goes, the more shear and dry air she will encounter; hence the weakening trend forecasted.

Paula is forecasted by the NHC to reach the tips of Mexico and western Cuba by 7 pm Wednesday and then meander as seen below. This is caused by very low steering currents that will be present during the latter part of the forecast period.

It is not known what Paula will do yet as she can do two things: (1) stay a hurricane, be picked up by the trough, and pushed NE. (2) weaken below hurricane status and meander in the Caribbean for days due to the steering currents and below hurricane status.

The models are all over the place with Paula. Most don’t develop her any further while others meander her in open waters.

I will continue to watch this closely and update everyone accordingly.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

UPDATE: Tropical Storm Paula

Invest 98L has been upgraded to tropical storm Paula. Hurricane Hunters have confirmed that tropical storm Paula has winds of 45 mph and a pressure of 1002 mb.

I will have more information later tonight if needed.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

October 11, 2010 Tropical Update

Good Morning !!

There is activity to report this morning in the Western Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center designated an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms Invest 98-L last week. This area has become much better organized over the weekend and satellite data shows that invest should be a tropical depression at the moment.

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this area later today. I expect them to find a tropical depression and 98L to be upgraded to tropical storm Paula tomorrow.

The center of 98L was forecasted to interact with the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras border, but satellite images show that the center will stay offshore. This means that the wave should not have trouble continuing to organize and slowly intensify in the Gulf of Honduras.

Models are all over the place and are not to be trusted. They range from (1) a trough picking up “future Paula” and taking her between Florida and Cuba into the Bahamas. (2) “future Paula” tracks towards the western tip of Cuba and miss the trough.

At this point, all of this is speculative. Once a tropical depression develops, then we can rely a little more on the models.

I will keep everyone informed…………………

Have a great day !!

Nicole Update

Good Morning !!

Tropical depression #16 has been upgraded to tropical storm Nicole and all watches/warnings for Florida have been as of the 11:00 AM advisory. The forecasted track has shifted east, away from Florida, and the center is no longer expected to make landfall in Florida.

The reason for the discontinuation of the watches/warnings is because the worst weather is currently located a couple hundred miles to the south and southeast of the center; therefore putting it over the Bahamas and not Florida. I believe that it was a bit premature for the NHC to discontinue at least the tropical storm watch for Florida. What if the track changes again?

No matter the forecasted track for Nicole, rain will be present over South Florida with periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds at times.

Stay dry !!

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

Some models want to develop another tropical system in the Caribbean within the next few days with the leftover energy of Nicole. They also forecast this storm to take a similar track that Nicole has taken and possibly affect Florida. I will monitor this and give you the details tomorrow.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.

September 28, 2010 Tropical Update

TD #16 is born !!

Summary of 11:00 AM EDT

TD #16

Location: 20.6N 82.5W
Distance: 390 miles SSW of Miami, Florida

Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph
Movement: NNE at 10 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb

Tropical Storm Warnings:

1. Cayman Islands

2. Cuban Provinces from Matanzas eastward to Ciego de Avila

3. Northwestern and Central Bahamas

4. Jupiter Inlet southward to East Cape Sable and Florida Bay

5. Florida Keys

Tropical Storm Watches:

1. North of Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet

2. North of East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee, Florida

During the last 6 hours, TD #16 has become better organized and has developed a center of circulation allowing the National Hurricane Center to make the declaration. Tropical storm development is expected later today.

There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere around TD #16 which it is trying to wrap around. Due to the large size of the system, it will take some time for this to happen.

The forecasted track for TD #16 will take it through central Cuba and then South Florida by Wednesday morning. IF the center of TD #16 tracks over Miami, the worst of the weather might affect the Bahamas since the strong thunderstorms and winds are well to the east of the storm. IF the center tracks more to the west, then the worst of the weather will get closer to Miami.

Either way, cities from Central Florida through the Florida Keys will receive a lot of rain and gusty winds commencing late tonight/early tomorrow morning. By tomorrow morning (8 AM), TD #16 should be exiting the coast of Cuba and head towards South Florida.

TD #16 is forecasted by the NHC to affect South Florida as a 45 mph tropical storm. I have said it in the past and I will say it again, the NHC is very concervative when is issuing intensity forecasts. I will post later today after the models have updated how strong they forecast TD #16 will be when it nears Florida.

In conclusion, expect a lot of rain and wind for the next 24 hours commencing later tonight.

I will issue another update later today after the Hurricane Hinters examine TD #16.

Elsewhere in the Tropics:

A few models have been hinting for a couple of days now of the development of another storm. This storm is forecasted to ALSO affect Florida and MIGHT be stronger than TD #16.

Time will tell………………

DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.