Summary of 11:00 AM EDT
Tropical Depression #12
Location: 9.8N 27.5W
Distance: 650 miles SSW of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph
Movement: W at 15 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Hurricane Warning: None
Hurricane Watch: None
Tropical Storm Warning: None
Tropical Storm Watch: None
We have our 12th tropical depression of the season very far away in the eastern Atlantic. If TD #12 (Katia) were to threaten the United States, it will occur in 12-14 days. Little has changed this morning regarding organization and structure. Currently, shear is inhibiting organization and it should subdue very soon allowing for a more favor environment for TD #12. The National Hurricane Center forecasts TD #12 to attain hurricane status in two days and a strong category 2 hurricane in 5 days.
Where is TD #12 going? It is way too early to know yet, but the models are in good agreement that in 5 days TD #12 will be a few hundred miles of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Currently, high pressure is steering TD #12, but a trough is expected to create a weakness along the western side of the high between 40W – 50W over the next couple of days. This should cause the depression to turn more towards the WNW within the next day or so. Further along in the forecast period, the models are showing the weakness in the ridge filling in (becoming stronger) westward. This is verbatim by the NHC:
This should prevent the cyclone from moving significantly pole ward during the forecast period.
It way too early, but if the above is true further down the road, this could mean trouble for the U.S. This means that the high would be strong enough to block any movement to the north for TD #12.
Time will tell………………………..another update tomorrow.
Today marks the 6 anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. There is no need to elaborate on her destruction as we all still vividly remember. Please send prayers to the 1,836 people that lost their lives and their families.
Elsewhere in the Tropics:
Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
DISCLAIMER: I am neither a meteorologist nor a professional; just a weather enthusiast. For the experts please go to: www.nhc.noaa.gov.